Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Baltimore
Posted on December 7, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Saturday, December 14, 2013
Topic: Profit From a Rapidly Changing World in 2014
Speaker: Robert Hsu, President, Absolute Return Capital Advisors LLC
Saddled with aging population and heavy entitlements, Europe sinks into recession, while here in America, a demographic crisis is brewing as 70 million baby boomers enter retirement age in the coming years. As growth slows, much of the world counted on emerging markets such as China and India to be growth engines for the global economy, but both economies are also slowing down. In a zero-interest-rate environment, how can investors generate enough returns to retire? International money manager Robert Hsu will share with you his strategies that earned solid double-digit average annual returns by profiting from major global trends that will continue in 2013.
AAII Sentiment Survey: 42.6% of Individual Investors Still Optimistic
Posted on December 5, 2013 | AAII Survey
More than four out 10 individual investors remain optimistic about the short-term direction of stock prices, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Fewer AAII members said they were optimistic than a week ago, however.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 4.7 percentage points to 42.6%. Even with the decline, this is the eighth time in the past nine weeks that optimism is above 40%. The historical average is 39.0%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, rose 5.4 percentage points to 29.8%. This is the second consecutive week that neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 0.7 percentage points to 27.5%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 30.5% for the eighth consecutive week and the 11th out of the past 13 weeks.
Four consecutive days of declines in the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 lowered the level of short-term optimism, but only minimally impacted short-term pessimism. Many individual investors continue to be encouraged by the market’s overall upward momentum, earnings growth and economic growth, while others are concerned about the pace of economic growth, elevated stock valuations and the lack of a long-term fiscal solution.
This week’s special question asked AAII members if the average consumer is now financially stronger or weaker than a year ago. Slightly more than half (51%) of all respondents thought the average consumer is now stronger. One in five of these respondents clarified their opinion by saying the average consumer is only slightly or marginally stronger. Approximately 21% of all respondents said the average consumer is weaker than a year ago, while 10% said the average consumer is unchanged.
During the week of Thanksgiving, we asked AAII members if holiday shopping or holiday travel data provide more insight into the health of the economy. By a three-to-one margin, respondents said holiday shopping was the better indicator. Several respondents described holiday shopping as encompassing a larger portion of the population. Some respondents also said that family trips over the holiday may occur even if consumers are otherwise reducing their spending.
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey:
- Bullish: 42.6%, down 4.7 percentage points
- Neutral: 29.8%, up 5.4 percentage points
- Bearish: 27.5%, down 0.7 percentage points
- Bullish: 39.0%
- Neutral: 30.5%
- Bearish: 30.5%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Sell OF THE WEEK 12/4/2013
Posted on December 4, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Costco Wholesale (COST) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Sell of the week
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Columbus
Posted on December 4, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Topic: Year-End Portfolio Tune-up and Preparing for 2014
Speaker: Max Larsen, Founder and President of Future Finances, Inc.
This presentation will focus on taking control of your portfolio for year-end 2013 and getting it ready for 2014 by incorporating a tactical asset allocation strategy, year-end tax planning and bond investing.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Connecticut
Posted on December 4, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Topic: How Old Is This Bull Market?
Speaker: Michael Santoli, Senior Columnist, Yahoo! Finance
Please note: Michael Santoli is the former Associate Editor of Barron’s
By historical standards, the ascent in stocks that began in March 2009 has been stronger and longer than most bull markets, suggesting it’s getting old. Yet the Dow only recently broke above a 13-year range, leading some observers to herald a new, long-lasting upward trend. Monetary policies and many economic indicators look more like early-cycle conditions than the end of an expansion. So how to reconcile these conflicting observations? Michael Santoli will present a discussion of valuation, Fed policy, investor sentiment and where the opportunities and risks reside in a market near all-time highs.
Please note: Michael Santoli is the former Associate Editor of Barron’s.
AAII WEEKLY FEATURES 12/3/2013
Posted on December 3, 2013 | Weekly Features
This week’s AAII Weekly Features has been updated.
View this week’s Top AAII Articles, Featured Stock Screen and Member Question.
BUY OF THE WEEK 12/03/2013
Posted on December 3, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Williams-Sonoma (WSM) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Buy of the week
THE December 2013 ISSUE OF THE AAII JOURNAL IS NOW AVAILABLE ON-LINE
Posted on December 3, 2013 | AAII Journal
Cover Articles: The Individual Investor’s Guide to Personal Tax Planning 2013
November AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Allocations Decline from Multi-Year High
Posted on December 3, 2013 | AAII Survey
Allocations to stocks and stock funds declined last month after having reached a six-year high in October, according to the November AAII Asset Allocation Survey. Fixed income and cash allocations both increased.
Stock and stock fund allocations declined 2.1% to 64.2%. November was the eighth consecutive month, and the 10th out of the past 11, with equity allocations above their historical average of 60%.
Bond and bond fund allocations increased by 0.4 percentage points to 17.3%. Though it is the second consecutive monthly increase, fixed income allocations are only back to their August 2013 levels. Bond and bond fund allocations have now been above their historical average of 16% for 52 out of the last 53 months.
Cash allocation rebounded by 1.6 percentage points to 18.5%. Even with the increase, November was the eighth month in the past 11 months with a cash allocation reading below 20%. November was also the 24th consecutive month with cash allocation below its historical average of 24%.
The record highs set by the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 are also contributing to the above-average equity allocations, and many individual investors are hopeful the rally will continue. Stock allocations did decline during the middle of the month, however, in part due to a dip in sentiment about the short-term direction of stock prices. Some AAII members also continue to fret about the macro environment (slow economic growth, fiscal uncertainty, elevated stock valuations, etc.).
November’s special question asked AAII members what percentage of their portfolio they allot to index mutual funds and ETFs. Approximately 28% of respondents said index funds account for between 1% and 25% of their portfolios. An additional 24% of respondents said they did not own any index funds. Slightly more than 19% of respondents use index funds for between 26% and 50% of their portfolios. At the other end of the spectrum, nearly 11% of respondents said index funds compose between 75% and 99% of their portfolios, and 8% solely used index funds.
November AAII Asset Allocation Survey results:
- Stocks and stock funds: 64.2%, down 2.1 percentage points
- Bonds and bond funds: 17.3%, up 0.4 percentage points
- Cash: 18.5%, up 1.6 percentage points
November AAII Asset Allocation Survey details:
- Stocks: 29.6%, down 1.1 percentage points
- Stock Funds: 34.7%, down 0.9 percentage points
- Bonds: 3.3%, unchanged
- Bond Funds: 13.9%, up 0.4 percentage points
- Stocks/Stock Funds: 60%
- Bonds/Bond Funds: 16%
- Cash: 24%
**The numbers are rounded and may not add up to 100%.
The AAII Asset Allocation Survey has been conducted monthly since November 1987 and asks AAII members what percentage of their portfolios are allocated to stocks, stock funds, bonds, bond funds and cash. The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/investor-surveys.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Denver
Posted on December 2, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Monday, December 9, 2013
Topic: Fixed-Income Investing in Troubled Times
Speaker: Jerry Paul, CFA, Portfolio Manager, ICON Fixed Income Fund
The year 2013 has been painful and confusing for bond investors. FOMC signals have waffled, adding price volatility to what has already been a decline in prices. The economy itself remains in questionable condition. What does the future hold as we enter a new year? Jerry Paul, CFA, has years of experience in bond research and portfolio management as well as impressive credentials and awards. He will cover the key events and trends that might mean up, down or neutral directions for interest rates. He will highlight important differences among outlooks for various types and maturities of bond markets, including quality versus high-yield as well as domestic versus international.