DIVIDEND INVESTING ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING
Posted on May 31, 2013 | Dividend Investing
The end of May has not come soon enough for bondholders.
STOCK SUPERSTARS ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 5/31/2013
Posted on May 31, 2013 | Stock Superstars Report
Stock Superstars alert for the week ending 5/31/2013 updated.
Focus on the Fundamentals, not the Story
Posted on May 30, 2013 | Investor Update
Every so often a stock with a good story catches the eyes of traders and experiences a price spike in response. Tesla Motors (TSLA) is currently that stock. Since the end of April, shares of Tesla have approximately doubled in price, soaring from $53.99 on April 30, 2013, to $104.95 today. When hoopla such as this occurs, it is easy to forget that good stories do not always result in good investments.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Enthusiasm Wanes as Neutral Sentiment Rises
Posted on May 30, 2013 | AAII Survey
Individual investors’ short-term enthusiasm for stocks waned, as a greater percentage expect stock prices to remain unchanged over the short term, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 13.0 percentage points to 36.0%. This is a four-week low. The historical average is 39.0%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, rose 4.9 percentage points to 34.4%. Not only is this an eight-week high, it is also the fifth time in six weeks and the seventh time in 10 weeks that neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded by 8.1 percentage points to 29.6%. Even with the increase, pessimism remains below its historical average of 30.5% for the fourth consecutive week.
This is the second time in three weeks that both bullish and bearish sentiment are below their historical averages. This is the first occurrence of where both optimism and pessimism have been below average for a second time in such a short span since March 2010. Between February 25, 2010, and March 18, 2010, both bullish and bearish sentiment were below average during three out of four weeks.
The drop in optimism coincides with the recent speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases sooner than later, and the resulting pullback in stock prices. Though individual investors have been encouraged by the current rally, the first quarter’s better-than-expected earnings, signs of continued economic growth and the presence of potentially negative headlines dampened their enthusiasm, at least temporarily. Prior to the recent Fed chatter, some AAII members had been concerned about current valuations, the actual pace of economic growth and a lack of progress on key issues by the White House and Congress.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how a change in the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program would impact their six-month outlook for stock prices. More than 40% of respondents said a reduction in or an ending of the program would cause them to be more bearish about the short-term outlook for stocks. The range of pessimism varied from slight—a small pullback in stock prices—to high, a correction or worse in stock prices. Approximately 25% of respondents said their short-term outlook would be unaffected by a change in the current Fed policy. A small number, about 10%, said such a move would help stocks or at least create a buying opportunity.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “The market is a balloon held up by the hot air from the Fed. Take this away and the party ends.”
- “Reducing the program will temporarily and negatively affect the stock market.”
- “Not at all—any correction would be over within a six-month time frame.”
- “It would depend on the rate of the decrease in bond purchases.”
- “It would not change my allocation. I can’t predict the market and don’t try. I just keep a balanced portfolio.”
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey:
- Bullish: 36.0%, down 13.0 percentage points
- Neutral: 34.4%, up 4.9 percentage points
- Bearish: 29.6%, up 8.1 percentage points
- Bullish: 39.0%
- Neutral: 30.6%
- Bearish: 30.6%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Sell OF THE WEEK 5/29/2013
Posted on May 29, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Salesforce.com (CRM) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Sell of the week
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII New York City
Posted on May 29, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Wednesday, June 5, 2013
Topic: The New “Nifty Fifty” and Continuation of the Rally
Speaker: Jason DeSera Trennert, Managing Partner, Strategas Research Partners
Jason Trennert will discuss how the decline of sovereign debt, including the downgrading of Treasury bonds, results in 27 companies that can now claim better credit risks than the U.S. This will lead to investors putting more money in a narrow list of companies. He views that the “great rotation,” predicted by many on the Street, is only in its infancy. Moreover, investors will tire of illiquid investments in private equity, also leading to the length and magnitude of the current rally being far greater than what a skeptical public expects.
BUY OF THE WEEK 5/28/2013
Posted on May 28, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why The Men’s Wearhouse (MW) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Buy of the week
The May 2013 passing company lists and performance data is now available on-line
Posted on May 27, 2013 | Stock Screens
YTD Return of Top Performers: Piotroski: High F-Score 83.7% — O’Shaughnessy: Tiny Titans 30.8%
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Boston
Posted on May 25, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Saturday, June 1, 2013
Topic: Improving Trading & Investment Returns Using Market Seasonality, Cycles & History
Speaker: Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist, Magnet Fund; Editor-in-Chief, Stock & Commodity Trader’s Almanacs
Jeffrey Hirsch will provide an in-depth review of the first five months of 2013 as well as how his annual forecast made last December 2012 has panned out so far and any changes he may have. He will focus on the flip side of his renowned Best Six Months Switching Strategy and what the prospects are for selling in May this year. He will also cover other current seasonal and cyclical trading opportunities as detailed in his Stock & Commodity Trader’s Almanacs and his Little Book of Stock Market Cycles. He will conclude by sharing current investment and trading ideas, pinpointing entry and exit prices using an array of technical analysis tools and chart patterns for highly correlated exchange-traded funds and top-ranked small-, mid- and large-cap Magnet stocks.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Orange County
Posted on May 25, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Saturday, June 1, 2013
Topic: Exploiting Market Cycles: The Key to Successful Investing
Speaker: Stan Harley, Editor and Publisher, Harley Market Letter/Harley Capital Management
Stan’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles: their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking and exploitation for investment and trading. He will present the basics of the Fibonacci numbers and will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. He will provide a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond and precious metals markets, as well as home prices and unemployment.