STOCK SUPERSTARS ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 7/12/2013

Posted on July 12, 2013 | Stock Superstars Report

Stock Superstars alert for the week ending 7/12/2013 updated.

Read more »



Think Twice Before Dumping Your Bond Fund

Posted on July 11, 2013 | Investor Update

Investors have been yanking their dollars out of bond mutual funds. An estimated $66.6 billion has been pulled over the past five weeks, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI). This is more than eight times the amount pulled from domestic equity funds over the same period.

Read more »



Pessimism Falls to Lowest Level since January 2012

Posted on July 11, 2013 | AAII Survey

Pessimism among individual investors fell to its lowest level since January 2012, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism, meanwhile, surged higher for the second consecutive week.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 6.9 percentage points to 48.9%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by our survey since May 23, 2013. The historical average is 39.0%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, declined 1.4 percentage points to 32.8%. This is the seventh consecutive week and the 13th in the past 16 weeks that neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 5.5 percentage points to 18.3%. This is the lowest level of pessimism since January 12, 2012. The historical average is 30.5%.

During the past two weeks, bullish sentiment has risen by a cumulative 18.6 percentage points and bearish sentiment has fallen by a cumulative 16.9 percentage points. At current levels, optimism is at the high end of its typical range (+1 standard deviation is a reading at or above 49.3%). Bearish sentiment is just shy of being at extraordinarily low levels (-2 standard deviations is a reading at or below 17.8%).

Since March, there have been sizeable swings in the sentiment pendulum, both to the bullish and the bearish sides. The recent optimistic stance comes as stocks have rebounded off of their June lows and are approaching record highs. Some AAII members are encouraged by signs of continued economic growth and the length of the current rally. Others, however, are concerned about prevailing valuations, the slow pace of economic growth, interest rate uncertainty and a lack of progress on key issues by Washington politicians.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how much impact foreign events such as the Brazilian protests, the Egyptian political crisis and the Chinese liquidity crunch are having on their six-month outlook for stocks. More than half of the respondents (56%) said the events were having no or very little impact on their outlook. One respondent observed, “The world is a mess, but then again, it’s always a mess.” Approximately 19% said the events have some impact, while just 9% said the events are significantly impacting their outlook. A small number of respondents (6%) said the foreign events will increase volatility within the U.S. markets.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

  • Bullish: 48.9%, up 6.9 percentage points
  • Neutral: 32.8%, down 1.4 percentage points
  • Bearish: 18.3%, down 5.5 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 39.0%
  • Neutral: 30.5%
  • Bearish: 30.5%

A new historical analysis of the AAII Sentiment Survey found that a correlation between low levels of optimism and good stock market performance over the following six- and 12-month periods exists. The analysis (Is the AAII Sentiment Survey a Contrarian Indicator?) is published in the June 2013 AAII Journal.

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey




Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Puget Sound

Posted on July 10, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Topic: Managing Risk in Your Retirement Plan and Investments
Speaker: Scott Seymour, President, Great Scott Financial

Risk is something everyone is concerned about. Ways to hedge financial and investment risks will be discussed throughout the presentation. Since there is no magic bullet for success, ways to navigate the typical investor pitfalls in all types of markets will be discussed. Challenges including periods of high asset correlation, sustained low interest rates and longer life spans will be addressed and solutions to each risk will be presented.

Read more »

Check out all AAII local chapters »



Sell OF THE WEEK 7/10/2013

Posted on July 10, 2013 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Zynga (ZNGA) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Sell of the week





Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Portland

Posted on July 9, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Topic: Managing Risk in Your Retirement Plan and Investments
Speaker: Scott Seymour, President, Great Scott Financial

Risk is something everyone is concerned about. Ways to hedge financial and investment risks will be discussed throughout the presentation. Since there is no magic bullet for success, ways to navigate the typical investor pitfalls in all types of markets will be discussed. Challenges that include periods of high asset correlation, sustained low interest rates and longer life spans will be addressed and solutions to each risk will be presented.

Read more »

Check out all AAII local chapters »



BUY OF THE WEEK 7/9/2013

Posted on July 9, 2013 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Buy of the week





Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Charlotte

Posted on July 6, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Saturday, July 13, 2013
Topic: The Only Three Questions That Matter
Speaker: Paul Townsend, Associate Vice President,Wells Fargo Advisors LLC

Learn the essentials of the point & figure investment discipline. Learn how to answer the only three questions that matter to every investor. Learn why objective decision making is a key to investing success.

Read more »

Check out all AAII local chapters »



Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Denver

Posted on July 6, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Saturday, July 13, 2013
Topic: Income With Safety

Speaker: Mark Paller, CPA, CFP, CLU

Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have already lost 11% in price since last summer, following what many called a bubble in public sentiment. Are they a buy yet, or is more capital erosion (swamping low-coupon income) still to come?

Read more »

Check out all AAII local chapters »



STOCK SUPERSTARS ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 7/5/2013

Posted on July 5, 2013 | Stock Superstars Report

Stock Superstars alert for the week ending 7/5/2013 updated.

Read more »



« Newer EntriesOlder Entries »