Featured App and Reader Survey
Posted on August 26, 2013 | Computerized Investing
Airsleep for iOS turns your iPhone, iPad or iPod Touch into an in-flight sleep system.
This Week’s Question
What was your last “computer” purchase?
Dividend Payout Ratio
Posted on August 25, 2013 | Computerized Investing
Knowing how much in earnings is paid out as dividends can tell you a lot about a firm’s stability and prospects.
STOCK SUPERSTARS ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 8/23/2013
Posted on August 23, 2013 | Stock Superstars Report
Stock Superstars alert for the week ending 8/23/2013 updated.
DIVIDEND INVESTING ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 8/23/2013
Posted on August 23, 2013 | Dividend Investing
We really thought this was going to be a slow news week. After all, it’s the latter half of August and second-quarter earnings season is near its end.
Good News for Stock Pickers
Posted on August 22, 2013 | Investor Update
The decline in correlations has become a trending topic among stock market strategists. The monthly returns of individual U.S. stocks are diverging from the Russell 1,000 index. Depending on who you ask, this is either a positive occurrence for stock pickers or a sign that fund managers are becoming complacent.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Spikes by 14.7 Percentage Points
Posted on August 22, 2013 | AAII Survey
Bearish sentiment rose by 14.7 percentage points to a four-month high as both bullish and neutral sentiment fell in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 5.5 percentage points to 29.0%. This puts optimism near the bottom of what has historically been the normal range of readings. It is also the third time in four weeks that bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 39.0%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, plunged 9.1 percentage points to 28.2%. This is the first time in 13 weeks that neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, spiked by 14.7 percentage points to 42.9%. This is the largest weekly increase in pessimism since April 11, 2013. The historical average is 30.5%.
Pessimism is now at an unusually high level following the second large jump in bearish sentiment this year. On April 11, bearish sentiment surged by 26.3 points to 54.5%. After the April jump, pessimism pulled back over next four consecutive weeks.
Bearish sentiment has been rising recently, with this week’s increase marking the sixth consecutively weekly increase. Until this week, neutral sentiment had stayed in a relatively high range. Combined, these trends signaled a growing sense of cautiousness on the part of individual investors. The 2.5% decline in the S&P 500 over the past five days may have been the catalyst to move some AAII members from the neutral camp and into the bearish camp. Current market valuations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve tapering its bond purchases, a lack of progress on key issues by Congress and the president, and slow economic growth are all dampening investors’ moods.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how second-quarter earnings influenced their outlook for stock prices. Nearly four out of 10 respondents (39%) said their outlook was not altered by the quarterly results. About 17% said the quarterly reports caused them to become more bearish. The responses from other individual investors were mixed some respondents with saying they are now more bullish and others saying they are more concerned with the potential near-term tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve. A few respondents said their investment outlook is not influenced by quarterly earnings.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “No change in my outlook, but I was disappointed in second-quarter earnings.”
- “Earnings were not very good, but I’m more concerned about rising interest rates.”
- “Earnings and corporate outlooks point to steady, but slow growth in the economy over the intermediate term.”
- “Positively. I was pleased with earnings of the companies I hold for the most part and was pleasantly surprised by the overall outlooks from most companies.”
- “Very little change. There were few surprises.”
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey
- Bullish: 29.0%, down 5.5 percentage points
- Neutral: 28.2%, down 9.1 percentage points
- Bearish: 42.9%, up 14.7 percentage points
- Bullish: 39.0%
- Neutral: 30.5%
- Bearish: 30.5%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Sell OF THE WEEK 8/21/2013
Posted on August 21, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Sysco Corp. (SYY) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Sell of the week
BUY OF THE WEEK 8/20/2013
Posted on August 20, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why SkyWest (SKYW) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Buy of the week
Getting a Handle on the Bond Market
Posted on August 19, 2013 | Classroom
An overview of how the bond market works: who sets bond prices, where to find a bond broker, and what a callable bond is.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Baton Rouge
Posted on August 17, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Saturday, August 24, 2013
Topic: U.S. Stocks: Opportunity or Value Trap?
Speaker: Robert Maltbie Jr., CFA, President and Founder, Singular Research
Robert Maltbie is a top-rated analyst and fund manager and the founder of Singular Research, the nation’s premier performance-based research boutique that focuses on uncovered small-capitalization issues. Robert has made some impressive predictions that have preceded headline events: He called for investors to short Facebook on its IPO day, foresaw the 2008 market meltdown and predicted Enron’s demise. His famous calls can be viewed on YouTube. He will share some of his current favorite picks and plans as well as his market strategy for the remainder of 2013