Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Phoenix

Posted on September 28, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Saturday, October 5, 2013
Topic: How to Earn Double-Digit Returns and Avoid Down Markets in a Safety-First Approach
Speaker: Nick Atkeson, Founding Partner, Delta Investment Management, LLC

The presentation will investigate market super-cycles and avoiding losses on portfolio returns. Nick Atkeson will discuss measuring risk and changing investor risk premiums that are tied more directly to the movement of the stock market than to earnings. He will also investigate analysis tools including the moving average crossover model, market sentiment measures, stop-loss and relative strength.

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STOCK SUPERSTARS ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 9/27/2013

Posted on September 27, 2013 | Stock Superstars Report

Stock Superstars alert for the week ending 9/27/2013 updated.

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DIVIDEND INVESTING ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 9/27/2013

Posted on September 27, 2013 | Dividend Investing

We realize all of the news networks are discussing the possibility of a government shutdown occurring on Tuesday, so we’re not going to add to the conversation about it…

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Investing Lessons from BlackBerry

Posted on September 26, 2013 | Investor Update

A funny thing happened this week. As I was about to tape my “Sell of the Week” for Chuck Jaffe’s Your Money Life podcast on Monday afternoon, trading in BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY) was halted. Since neither Chuck nor I knew what was going on right at that minute, we postponed taping. As we now know, an acquisition offer was made for the Canadian smartphone maker.

I bring this up because BlackBerry is a great case study for investors. The company realized revenue growth of 33.1% and net income growth of 38.8% in fiscal 2011. (The company’s fiscal years run from March through February.) Last week, BlackBerry warned that fiscal second-quarter revenues would be down by approximately 45% from a year prior. The company also anticipated recognizing a net operating loss of nearly $1 billion, primarily reflecting a massive writedown of inventory.

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Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Birmingham

Posted on September 26, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Thursday, October 3, 2013
Topic: How to Avoid Bear Markets
Speaker: Ian Abbott, Owner, Abacus Financial Services, LLC

A large number of investors lost significant amounts of their retirement funds when the market dropped 40% in 2008. Investors need to have a plan to protect their assets in the event of a new meltdown. In this presentation, Ian Abbott will discuss the causes of the meltdown and why it could happen again. Abbott will discuss how active portfolio management saved nest eggs by cutting losses in the meltdown. He believes superior long-term protection and performance can be obtained by focusing investment activity on dynamic allocation and sector rotation and by applying tax-saving strategies.

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Neutral Sentiment Jumps to a One-Month High

Posted on September 26, 2013 | AAII Survey

Neutral sentiment jumped to its highest level in a month, according to the according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, as large-cap stock prices fell for five consecutive days.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged by 9.1 percentage points to 36.1%. This is a three-week low. It is also the sixth time in the past nine weeks optimism is below its historical average of 39.0%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, rebounded by 8.1 percentage points to 33.3%. This is ends a four-week skid and puts neutral sentiment back above its historical average of 30.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, edged 0.9 percentage points upward to 30.6%. The historical average is 30.5%.

At current levels, all three sentiment indicators are well within their typical historical ranges.

The drop in bullish sentiment and the increase in neutral sentiment occurred as both the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 fell during all five trading days of the survey’s period. The fiscal standoff in Congress likely didn’t help optimism either, though it did not necessarily cause individual investors to be bearish. Rather, the market’s rally this year, corporate earnings and economic growth are playing bigger roles in influencing sentiment. This said, several AAII members have previously expressed their frustration with Washington politics.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they agree or disagree with the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s decision to leave its bond buying program unchanged. Approximately 51% of respondents disagreed with the decision while 36% agreed with it. Those who disagreed said it is time to raise rates or are concerned about the future impact on inflation and the U.S. dollar if the monetary stimulus continues. Those who agreed thought the economy is not yet strong enough to raise interest rates. Some respondents who agreed with the Fed’s decision thought the bond purchases should start to be tapered sooner than later.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “I disagree. The Fed is waiting too long to get its monetary policy back to normal. They won’t be able to turn it off when it’s too late.”
  • “I think it is time to take the training wheels off. The longer this problem lasts, the harder it will be to end it.”
  • “Continuing on the present course will eventually result in stagflation and an ever declining economy.”
  • “I agree because the economy needs to show more signs it will be able to stand on its own before the Fed cuts back.”
  • “Agree. The economy is not strong enough for the Fed to stop purchasing bonds.”

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

  • Bullish: 36.1%, down 9.1 percentage points
  • Neutral: 33.3%, up 8.1 percentage points
  • Bearish: 30.6%, up 0.9 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 39.0%
  • Neutral: 30.5%
  • Bearish: 30.5%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey



Sell OF THE WEEK 9/25/2013

Posted on September 25, 2013 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Sell of the week





Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII New York City

Posted on September 25, 2013 | Local Chapters

Date: Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Topic: Outlook 2014: Is It Time to Buy or Bail?
Speaker: Sam Stovall, Ph.D., Chief Equity Strategist, Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ

Sam Stovall will discuss his investment outlook for 2014 based on his assessment of stock market history, economic projections, fundamental forecasts and technical trends. He will consider such events as the historical four-year cycle low, the timing of a global economic recovery and the possible end of our friend “the trend.” He will also identify those sectors and specific equities favored by Standard & Poor’s.

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AAII WEEKLY FEATURES 9/24/2013

Posted on September 24, 2013 | Podcast

This week’s AAII Weekly Features has been updated.
View this week’s Top AAII Articles, Featured Stock Screen and Member Question.

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BUY OF THE WEEK 9/24/2013

Posted on September 24, 2013 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Buy of the week





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