DIVIDEND INVESTING ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 10/25/2013
Posted on October 25, 2013 | Dividend Investing
We could spend several paragraphs on the bond market today, but given the large amount of earnings news we have to share with you, we’re going to limit our opening remarks.
Two Ways to Lose Money
Posted on October 24, 2013 | Investor Update
The financial services industry seems to have an endless reserve of ideas for how to make money for itself at the expense of investors. Among the latest of these ideas are an investment in a football player and bonds paying coupon payments with additional bonds. Oh boy….
Posted on October 24, 2013 | Computerized Investing
Wisebread.com showcases a community of bloggers who write about how to adopt a money-saving lifestyle. This personal finance website provides viewers with tips on smart shopping, financial advice, career and money-making ideas, and other general “know-how” topics.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism at Lowest Level since January 2012
Posted on October 24, 2013 | AAII Survey
Pessimism plunged to a 21-month low and optimism rose to a 10-month high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment rose.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 2.9 percentage points to 49.2%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by our survey since January 24, 2013. It is also the fifth time in the past seven weeks that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 39.0%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, rose 4.4 percentage points to 33.2%. This is the first time in three weeks neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, plunged 7.3 percentage points to 17.6%. This is the lowest pessimism has been since January 12, 2012. (It was also at 17.2% on January 5, 2012.) Bearish sentiment has now been below its historical average of 30.5% for five times in the past seven weeks.
This week’s readings almost replicates the readings of January 12, 2012: bullish at 49.1%, neutral at 33.7% and bearish at 17.2%. While history does not always repeat, it is interesting to look at. Bullish sentiment was above average for 15 out of 16 weeks from December 15, 2011 through March 29, 2012. This optimism was accompanied by a 16% rise in the S&P 500.
Pessimism has fallen by a cumulative 16.0 percentage points over the past two weeks and is now at an unusually low level (more than one standard deviation below average). Bullish sentiment is right at the top of its typical range. These readings come as the S&P 500 is within striking distance of its best calendar year return since 2003. Rising stock prices, better-than-forecast third-quarter earnings, and economic growth are keeping individual investors optimistic. Concerns about slow economic growth, stock valuations, and the lack of a long-term fiscal solution have not gone away, however, and remain front and center for some individual investors.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how, if at all, the latest federal budget agreement is influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. Responses were mixed. The largest group of respondents (41%) said it was not influencing their outlook. Some of these members said they are more focused on corporate earnings and the economic backdrop or simply take a long-term view towards investing. Nearly 21% of respondents said they are cautious. Concerns about another standoff occurring in January or February was the primary reason why, though some respondents also thought the latest agreement merely postponed the date for dealing with the debt reduction and other fiscal issues. Nearly 18% said they are bearish, with some fretting about a market pullback occurring in the first quarter and others frustrated with the lack of progress on fiscal issues. About 9% said they are now more optimistic.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “No change. I invest for the long haul.”
- “Not at all. I think the economy is the most influential factor in determining the direction the stock market takes.”
- “I’m bullish for the next three months, and then I’ll wait and see.”
- “The agreement was nothing more than another ‘kick the can down the road!’”
- “I don’t expect another compromise by January or February, and the market will react negatively.”
- “I would probably be bullish if the clowns in Washington had actually been able to pass a budget.”
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
- Bullish: 49.2%, up 2.9 percentage points
- Neutral: 33.2%, up 4.4 percentage points
- Bearish: 17.6%, down 7.3 percentage points
- Bullish: 39.0%
- Neutral: 30.5%
- Bearish: 30.5%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Sell OF THE WEEK 10/23/2013
Posted on October 23, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Fastenal (FAST) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Sell of the week
CI DOWNLOAD OF THE WEEK
Posted on October 23, 2013 | Computerized Investing
Fortora Fresh Finance is a budgeting program for individuals who want to monitor their spending and expenses.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Philadelphia
Posted on October 22, 2013 | Local Chapters
Date: Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Topic: Mini-Conference on Real Estate
Speaker: Calvin Schnure, Vice President of Research and Industry Information, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts
If you want to own income-producing properties, without the need to either search for tenants nor to fix the many problems that inevitably arise, you might want to consider real estate investment trusts (REITs). REITs, which you can think of as being mutual funds that own portfolios of real estate, invest in such properties as shopping centers, apartment buildings and nursing homes, and pay almost all of their cash flows to their shareholders. Dr. Calvin Schnure—author, writer, presenter, and economist from the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts
(NAREIT)—will explain what REITs are and how to evaluate them. Then Jeanne A. Leonard of Liberty Property Trust as well as representatives of several other local REITs will discuss their companies. If you want to invest in real estate but don’t want the management headaches, this mini-conference will help get you started.
Online Discount Brokers
Posted on October 22, 2013 | Computerized Investing
A look at the strengths and weaknesses of the five online discount brokers most used by AAII members.
BUY OF THE WEEK 10/22/2013
Posted on October 22, 2013 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Iconix Brand Group (ICON) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Buy of the week
AAII WEEKLY FEATURES 10/22/2013
Posted on October 22, 2013 | Weekly Features
This week’s AAII Weekly Features has been updated.
View this week’s Top AAII Articles, Featured Stock Screen and Member Question.