Sitelight and Reader Survey

Posted on December 16, 2013 | Computerized Investing


The Verge is a website designed to offer in-depth coverage of a wide array of topics that include technology, science, art, culture and more.

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This Week’s Question

If price were not an issue, would you prefer a tablet that you can hold in one hand, such as an iPad mini or Kindle Fire 7-inch, or one with a larger screen, such as an iPad Air or Google Nexus 10?

A) I prefer portability
B) I prefer a larger screen size
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Screening for Quality Growth, Value & Momentum

Posted on December 15, 2013 | Computerized Investing


Translating the Novy-Marx approach for finding quality value stocks into a screen using Stock Investor Pro and Excel.

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DIVIDEND INVESTING ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 12/13/2013

Posted on December 13, 2013 | Dividend Investing

In the December Monthly Report, we show a chart of Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio. At a CAPE ratio of 26.1, the stock market is no longer cheap.

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The December 2013 passing company lists and performance data is now available on-line

Posted on December 13, 2013 | Stock Screens

YTD Return of Top Performers: Piotroski: High F-Score 142.3% — Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow 91.6%

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December 2013 AAII Model Portfolios Updated

Posted on December 13, 2013 | Model Portfolios

1-Year Returns as of 11/30/13: AAII Fund Portfolio 27.5% — AAII Shadow Stock Portfolio 61.4%

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Risk Is Not So Easily Defined

Posted on December 13, 2013 | Investor Update

Risk seems like a word that is easily definable. Certainly, in the world of finance, explaining what risk is should be fairly straightforward. In reality, defining risk is a bit like defining obscenity—a person knows it when he sees it.

The Merriam-Webster Unabridged Dictionary lists four definitions, and several qualifiers, for risk. They include “the possibility of loss, injury, disadvantage, or destruction,” “someone or something that creates or suggests a hazard or adverse chance” and “the product of the amount that may be lost and the probability of losing it.”

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AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Rebounds as Pessimism Falls

Posted on December 12, 2013 | AAII Survey

Neutral sentiment rose back above average as pessimism fell to its lowest level in five weeks, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism declined modestly.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.4 percentage points to 41.3%. This is the eighth time in the past 10 weeks that optimism is above 40%. The historical average is 39.0%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, rose 3.9 percentage points to 33.7%. Since falling to 24.4% two weeks ago, neutral sentiment has rebounded by a cumulative 9.3 percentage points. The historical average is 30.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 2.5 percentage points to 25.0%. This is a five-week low. It is also the ninth consecutive week and the 11th out of the past 13 weeks with a bearish sentiment reading below the historical average of 30.5%.

The market’s lackluster start to December has dampened optimism a bit as shown by bullish sentiment falling by a cumulative 6.0 percentage points since Thanksgiving. Nonetheless, the level of optimism remains above its historical average as many individual investors continue to be encouraged by the new record highs established by the large-cap indexes along with earnings growth and economic growth. Tempering the level of optimism are concerns about the pace of economic growth, elevated stock valuations and the lack of a long-term fiscal solution.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they are holding onto stocks they consider to be overvalued or overbought. Responses were split with 45% of respondents saying no, they are not, and 38% saying yes, they are. Among the reasons given for holding onto a stock considered to be pricey are that it is a long-term investment, expectations for the price to continue rising, the dividend yield and a desire to avoid or defer capital gains taxes.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “No. If I thought they were overvalued, I would sell.”
  • “No. I sold the stocks two weeks ago that I thought were overvalued.”
  • “I like to let my winners run.”
  • “Yes. Because overbought conditions can last for a long time.”
  • “I think the market will continue upward and I don’t want to pay capital gains taxes.”

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

  • Bullish: 41.3%, down 1.4 percentage points
  • Neutral: 33.7%, up 3.9 percentage points
  • Bearish: 25.0%, down 2.5 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 39.0%
  • Neutral: 30.5%
  • Bearish: 30.5%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey



Sell OF THE WEEK 12/11/2013

Posted on December 11, 2013 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why CenterPoint Energy (CNP) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Sell of the week



BUY OF THE WEEK 12/10/2013

Posted on December 10, 2013 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Buy of the week





Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Baltimore

Posted on December 7, 2013 | Local Chapters


Date: Saturday, December 14, 2013
Topic: Profit From a Rapidly Changing World in 2014
Speaker: Robert Hsu, President, Absolute Return Capital Advisors LLC

Saddled with aging population and heavy entitlements, Europe sinks into recession, while here in America, a demographic crisis is brewing as 70 million baby boomers enter retirement age in the coming years. As growth slows, much of the world counted on emerging markets such as China and India to be growth engines for the global economy, but both economies are also slowing down. In a zero-interest-rate environment, how can investors generate enough returns to retire? International money manager Robert Hsu will share with you his strategies that earned solid double-digit average annual returns by profiting from major global trends that will continue in 2013.

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