This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how oil prices are affecting their outlook for the stock market. Slightly more than four out of 10 respondents (42%) said oil prices were not having an impact or were only having a small impact. Some pointed to the recent stabilization in oil prices, while others said they either don’t own oil stocks or don’t pay attention to the commodity. Nearly 16% said oil was having a positive impact, while the same number said oil was having a negative impact. Those who said oil prices were boosting their outlook pointed to the reduced volatility or viewed the rebound in prices as signaling economic growth. Those in the negative camp cited volatility in the commodity’s prices and the adverse impact on the economy. About 5% said that changes in oil prices move stock prices.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “A rising oil price would indicate improving demand and economic metrics.”
- “No impact absent any quick and sustained changes in oil prices.”
- “No effect except for oil producer stocks.”
- “Rising oil prices indicate increased demand as the world’s economies improve; a good scenario for market growth.”
- “Not much impact as oil prices seemed to have stabilized.”
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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