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AAII Members Disagree on Timing of First Rate Hike

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This week’s special question asked AAII members when they expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, given our current unemployment rate and historically low labor participation rate. Responses were mixed, ranging from “pretty soon” to 2016, but the vast majority believe it will be sometime in 2015.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “I think the consensus is the second quarter of 2015. I’ll go with that.”
  • “Not until inflation picks up.”
  • “Mid-2015 if the labor participation rate improves.”
  • “The Federal Reserve has communicated their intentions well, with appropriate options to change as conditions change. For now, they expect to start raising rates in the second half of 2015.”
  •  “I see a slow gradual increase over three years so that the market can adjust to normal interest rate levels.”
 

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