This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how the inability of stocks to retest or rise above their summer highs is influencing their outlook. Nearly one out four respondents (24%) said that the price action has caused them to be pessimistic or cautious. Conversely, a similar number of respondents said that their outlook is not being influenced by the inability of stocks to rise to new highs or that the recent price action is having little influence on their outlook. Several of these respondents described themselves as long-term investors. Approximately 13% of respondents are waiting to see the results of the election before setting short-term expectations. Another 11% are waiting for a catalyst to drive stocks in one direction or another. Slightly more than 9% view the lack of new highs as a positive sign.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “When we get through this crazy presidential race, maybe we can get a better idea of where we’re going.”
- “Confirms my belief that we are entering a bear market.”
- “It feels like the market is consolidating and is positioning itself for the next move up.”
- “Little or no effect. I’m unconcerned about short-term indicators.”
- “No influence. I’m awaiting the election results and the restart of interest rate increases.”
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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