AAII Sentiment Survey: Highest Optimism/Lowest Pessimism Since June

Optimism among individual investors reached its highest level, while pessimism fell to its lowest level, since June in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This week’s results also show a decline in neutral sentiment.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.0 percentage points to 43.5%. Optimism was last higher on June 13, 2018 (44.8%). The historical average is 38.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, pulled back by 2.4 percentage points to 32.1%. Neutral sentiment remains above its historical average of 31.0% for the 27th time in 28 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 2.7 percentage points to 24.4%. The historical average is 30.5%.

At current levels, all three indicators are well within their typical historical ranges.

The recent rebound in optimism is occurring as the major U.S. stock indexes are setting record highs. Nevertheless, tariffs and the possibility of an escalating trade war remain front and center on the minds of many individual investors. Also influencing sentiment are Washington politics (including President Donald Trump), economic growth, interest rates (including monetary policy), valuations and corporate profits.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

  • Bullish 43.5%, up 5.0 percentage points
  • Neutral: 32.1%, down 2.4 percentage points
  • Bearish: 24.4%, down 2.7 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 38.5%
  • Neutral: 31.0%
  • Bearish: 30.5%

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

If you want to become an effective manager of your own assets and achieve your financial goals, consider a risk-free 30-day Trial AAII Membership