This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how much influence the election is having on their expectations for the stock market relative to other factors such as earnings growth, the economy, the Fed, valuations, international factors, etc. Just under half of all respondents (49%) said that the election is either having just a small/minimal impact or no impact on their stock market expectations. Several said that other factors matter more. Nearly a quarter of all respondents (23%), however, said that the election is having a large influence. Many of these investors are bracing for a drop in stock prices, or at least increased volatility. An additional 5% say that the election is creating uncertainty and 4% said that the election is having some influence on their market outlook. We included the phrase “regardless of which candidate you support” in the actual question and most respondents did not state which candidate they favor.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “I believe the presidential election has less of an impact than the other factors you mention, earnings growth, the Fed, international factors, etc.”
- “Like the market, I’m not making a move until I feel comfortable with who the new president might be.”
- “I think the election will only have a short-term effect, if any.”
- “My expectations for the aforementioned factors will change with which party is in control.”
- “The election is creating uncertainty, which I view as a negative for the market.”
- “The election, a real disappointment to Americans, will likely trigger a downward slide to stocks.”
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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