Investors Foresee 2019 Stock Prices Influenced by Trade and Politics

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought would most influence the direction of stock prices in 2019. Nearly tied were trade (38% of all respondents) and Washington politics (37%). Responses regarding trade focused mainly on China, with some AAII members saying it depends on whether a settlement is reached. Responses…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rebounds

Pessimism about the short-term direction of the stock market among individual investors rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both optimism and neutral sentiment fell back below their respective averages. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 4.9 percentage points to 33.5%. Optimism is below its…

 

Nearly Half of Investors Expect an Increase in the S&P 500 in 2019

Last week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how big of a percentage gain or loss the S&P 500 index will realize in 2019. Just under 45% of respondents expect an increase, though about half of them anticipate gains of 5% or less. Economic growth, earnings growth and the possibility of a resolution to…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Plunges

Pessimism among individual investors, which had been holding at a high level, plunged to its lowest level in more than three months in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both bullish and neutral sentiment rose strongly. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.4 percentage points to 38.5%. This…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Pulls Back, But Stays High

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is above 40% for the fourth consecutive week and the fifth time in seven weeks. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows rebounds in optimism and neutral sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 1.5…

 

One out of Four Investors Say They Increased Their Cash Allocations Compared to Start of 2018

Last month’s Asset Allocation Survey special question asked AAII members how their current allocation compared to what they expected it would be when 2018 started. Just under 37% describe their allocations as being more conservative than expected, with approximately one out of four respondents say they increased their cash allocations. Conversely, one-third (33%) of respondents…

 

December AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Cash Nears a 6-Year High

Cash allocations among individual investors rose to nearly a six-year high last month. The December AAII Asset Allocation Survey also showed a further decline in equity exposure. Stock and stock fund allocations fell 2.2 percentage points to 62.4%. Exposure to equities was last lower in February 2016 (61.5%). Even with the decline, equity allocations remained…

 

Two out of Five Investors Think Rising Interest Rates Should Halt

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members whether the Federal Reserve should continue to raise interest rates. Respondents were split. Slightly more than two out of five respondents (42%) think the pause button should be hit. Many of these respondents think the Fed should wait to see additional data, that growth is slowing…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Half of Individual Investors Are Bearish

Half of individual investors now describe themselves as “bearish” for the first time since 2013. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows greater polarization, with neutral sentiment falling to an eight-year low. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded for a second consecutive week, rising 6.7 percentage points to…

 

Oil Price Declines Fail to Alter Market Outlook for Majority of Investors

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how oil prices are impacting their outlook for the overall stock market. Slightly over half of all respondents (53%) say oil prices are not influencing their outlook. Approximately 15% of respondents think the decline in prices is bad for stocks, with an additional 3% saying the…