This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what type of impact, if any, the current events in the Middle East are having on their six-month outlook for stock prices. Nearly half of respondents (49%) said the events so far were either not impacting or having a very small impact on their outlook. Slightly more than one out of five respondents (21%) said the events were either causing them to reduce their expectations about how stocks will perform or were a cause for concern. Just 12% said they were more bearish because of the events in the Middle East. Some members noted that their outlooks would change if geopolitical events worsened.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “None. There is always something going on somewhere. I just tune it out.”
- “I would expect oil and gas prices to go up, creating a slight drag on the economy.”
- “Currently none, but things can change quickly over there.”
- “Some concern changing my sentiment on the market from bullish to neutral.”
- “Major impact due to possibilities of expanded conflicts.”