This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought would most influence the direction of stock prices over the second of half this year. Responses were mixed, with many AAII members listing more than one factor or event. Nearly one out of every three respondents (32%) said a potential change in U.S. monetary policy or a corresponding change in interest rates. Greece and the eurozone was a close second, named by about 28% of respondents. Nearly 15% of respondents said economic growth while more than 13% said corporate earnings.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “The Federal Reserve’s position on raising interest rates and global economic events.”
- “If/when the Fed tightens and the Greek situation.”
- “Earnings always seem to be the main driver.”
- “The improving economic outlook in the United States.”
- “Downturn in China, the Greece-euro crisis and unrest in the Middle East.”