This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how, if at all, oil prices are impacting their outlook for the stock market in general. Responses were varied. Slightly more than one out of four respondents (27%) said oil prices were not impacting their outlook for the stock market. Approximately 20% view oil and stock prices as being correlated. Several of these respondents said oil prices are hurting stocks or at least causing volatility. Nearly 15% believe low oil prices are a positive for the economy, and therefore the stock market. About 8% say low oil prices are a negative for stocks. Some of these respondents fret about energy company bankruptcies hurting the credit markets. Almost 10% of respondents gave a forecast for oil, with slightly more anticipating crude prices to rise than expect oil prices to be fairly stable.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “I am a long-term investor. I know that oil prices will stabilize and then go back up.”
- “I still think lower oil prices are good for the U.S. economy overall.”
- “Cheap oil stresses high-yield debt and restrains capital spending. That is a negative for stocks.”
- “I think that the stock market is almost directly following the price of oil.”
- “Oil will gradually rise, stabilizing the stock market.”
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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