On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal observed in its morning briefing that “The S&P 500 has gone 53 trading days without a move of 1% in either direction, the longest such streak since January.” As of today’s close, the streak now stands at 56 days. This is just the fifth time in five years that the large-cap index has posted a gain or decline of less than 1% over a span of at least 50 consecutive market days, the newspaper stated.
The calm waters are quite a change from what we experienced at the start of the year. During February and March alone, the S&P 500 index closed down by at least 1% on 11 different days and rose by at least 1% 12 times. Including January and the first few days of April, the S&P 500 experienced a total of 25 days where it moved up or down by at least 1%. The volatility included six days with a drop of at least 2% and one day with a gain of at least 2%.
Fast forward to today, and the updated 2018 year-to-date count is 16 days with a drop of at least 1% and 20 days with a gain of at least 1%. Put another way, since April 3, there have only been 11 days when the S&P 500 has closed up or down by more than 1%. The last such day was June 25 when the large-cap index fell by 1.37%.
More on AAII.com
- You Can Judge a Fund by Its Volatility – Though conditions are calm now, actively managed funds with previously high levels of volatility will likely return to being volatile once market conditions change.
- Data Mixed on Whether Volatility Is Rising – When looked at from a longer historical perspective, it isn’t clear that the digital age has altered how volatile the markets are.
Highlights from this month’s AAII Journal
- Investor’s Best of the Web 2018 – The most useful websites for analyzing stocks, tracking a portfolio, finding funds and getting information on bonds.
- Do the Top ETFs Continue to Outperform? – Seven years ago, we began tracking the returns of the 10 highest-returning ETFs. Find out what happened to them after we highlighted them.
AAII Sentiment Survey
Optimism fell to a six-week low, ending a streak of above-average readings by doing so. More about this week’s results.
- Bullish: 32.1%, down 10.1 points
- Neutral: 35.1%, up 3.6 points
- Bearish: 32.8%, up 6.5 points
- Bullish: 38.5%
- Neutral: 31.0%
- Bearish: 30.5%
Take the Sentiment Survey
What’s Trending on AAII
The Week Ahead
The week’s first economic report will be the September Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released on Monday. Tuesday will feature the National Association of Home Builders’ September housing market index. August housing starts and building permits will be released on Wednesday. Thursday will feature the September Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey and August existing home sales.
The Treasury Department will auction off $11 billion in 10-year Treasury-inflation protected securities (TIPS) on Thursday.
Local Chapter Meetings
AAII Local Chapter Meetings offer you a variety of presentations from expert speakers who will give you their view on the world of investing. A bonus of attending a Chapter Meeting near you is the opportunity to meet other AAII members who share your interest and enthusiasm for investing. You can even share the Chapter experience with your family and friends by inviting them to attend Chapter Meetings with you!