This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought would most influence the direction of stock prices in 2018. Almost one out of three respondents (31%) said taxes and/or corporate earnings. Many of these respondents expect the tax cuts to lead to higher profit growth. Approximately 29% said politics, domestically or internationally. More than 8% of all respondents mentioned President Trump by name, some favorably and some unfavorably. The Federal Reserve, interest rates and monetary policy were named by 16% of respondents. Some respondents listed more than one factor they expect to influence the market.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “Corporate profits and the new tax law.”
- “Tax cuts will help. Only an unexpected geopolitical event will cause a downturn.”
- “Fed activity around interest rates.”
- “Growth of worldwide economies is important, but politics with Trump could also produce a dramatic change.”
- “Animal spirits and money from the sidelines finally.”
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