This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks now that the elections are over. Not surprisingly, many said president-elect Donald Trump. Slightly more than one out of every four respondents described themselves as being uncertain about the impact his presidency will have or did not specifically state a positive or negative bias. Many of the respondents are awaiting to see what policies he puts into action and the impact of those policies. Approximately 22% are pleased with the election with Trump, particularly the prospects of tax cuts, deregulation and/or the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. About 5% have a negative view, with some fretting about the impact Trump will have on the economy and trade.
Beyond Trump, 18% of respondents are focused on the Federal Reserve and the possibility of higher interest rates. Corporate earnings were cited by 9% of respondents, the economy by 8%, and 3% are focused on valuations. Some respondents listed more than one factor.
Here’s a sampling of the responses:
- “How much Trump tries to interfere with global trade agreements.”
- “Trump will be great for business by lowering taxes and reducing government involvement in business.”
- “I will be holding my breath to see what new policies are implemented by Donald Trump.”
- “The actions of the Federal Reserve.”
- “Can the economy grow fast enough to justify the increase in stock prices?”
- “The current valuation of stocks is quite high.”
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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