AAII WEEKLY FEATURE 7/14/2015

Posted on July 14, 2015 | Weekly Features

Investor-Update

This week’s AAII Weekly Features has been updated.
View this week’s Top AAII Articles, Featured Stock Screen and Member Question.

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BUY OF THE WEEK 7/14/2015

Posted on July 14, 2015 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Lennar (LEN) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Buy of the week




Energy Stocks Hurt Net Dividend Increases, Plus Baxter’s New Cost Basis

Posted on July 10, 2015 | Dividend Investing

Aside from Greece’s debt issues and possible expulsion from the European Union (EU), issues in the Chinese stock market and glitches at the New York Stock Exchange, it was a fairly normal week.

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Four Metrics to Pay Attention to This Earnings Season

Posted on July 10, 2015 | Stock Superstars Report

We are now in earnings season, with companies such as Alcoa (AA) releasing their earnings. The earnings season can be hectic, and it can be tempting for investors to glance at a company’s earnings release and take it at face value. However, the press release doesn’t always highlight what is important to the SSR portfolio. For an SSR subscriber, here are four metrics to look at in the earnings releases of SSR holdings.

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Low Large-Cap Volatility Leaves Members With Mixed Opinions

Posted on July 9, 2015 | AAII Survey

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought about the limited volatility experienced by the large-cap U.S. indexes during the second-quarter. Responses were very mixed. The largest group of responses (14%) believe the decline in volatility is a precursor to a downward move in stocks. A nearly equal number (also about 14%) pointed to a lack of catalysts to move stock prices in either direction. Nearly 9% said the lack of volatility is not influencing how they view stocks. The uncertainty of when the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates was cited by 7% of respondents. Slightly more than 6% said the low volatility will not last, though they are unsure in what direction stock prices will move. An additional 6% viewed the lack of volatility as a positive sign. Five percent perceive the market or the individual stocks they own as having been volatile.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “I don’t think it’s important to what happens to stocks moving forward.”
  • “Few alternatives for return, but investors are not overly anxious to increase their position in equities.”
  • “I thought there was plenty of volatility and I would not have wanted more.”
  • “The market seems to be consolidating, but what direction is the next major move?”
  • “It is setting us up for a 10% to 15% correction.”
  • “No one knows what to do.”


Historical Similarities Are Not Guides for China and Greece

Posted on July 9, 2015 | Investor Update

Investor-Update

This summer has not been kind to the Chinese markets. Since mid-June, nearly 30% of the market capitalization of Chinese stocks has vanished into the ether. (The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite is down by about 28% since June 12, 2015.) Reuters says trading halts have been placed on about 1,500 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. To put this number in perspective, the value of these companies equates to about half of the Chinese market.

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AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above 40% for 14th Consecutive Week

Posted on July 9, 2015 | AAII Survey

Neutral sentiment remained above 40% for a 14th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Additionally, optimism rebounded as pessimism pulled back from last week’s 2015 high.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.3 percentage points to 27.9%, a three-week low. The large drop keeps optimism at an unusually low level for the ninth time in 10 weeks. This is also the 18th consecutive week with a bullish sentiment reading below its historical average of 39.0%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.6 percentage points to 42.9%. The increase keeps neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.0% for the 27th consecutive week and at an unusually high level for a 14th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, pulled back by 5.9 percentage points to 29.2%. The historical average is 30.0%.

The current 14-week streak of neutral sentiment readings at or above 40% (readings above 39.6% are unusually high) is the first such streak since July 8 through October 21, 1988. If neutral sentiment is at or above 40% next week it would tie the record set between November 13, 1987 and March 4, 1988.

Optimism is also in the midst of a notable streak. The current stretch of 18 consecutive weeks with below-average readings is the longest since a 20-week stretch between April 5 and August 16, 2012.

Notable upward and downward moves in bullish and bearish sentiment have been occurring over the past few weeks as the S&P 500 has been showing signs of becoming more volatile. Greece is at the forefront of some individual investors’ minds, as we are seeing it mentioned with a greater frequency in response to the survey’s special questions. The timing and magnitude of a change in U.S. monetary policy is still taking precedence, as we noted last week. Contributing to bearish sentiment are concerns about the possibility of a bigger decline in stock prices occurring, the pace of economic growth, the lack of wage growth, valuations, the impact of the stronger dollar on earnings and geopolitical events. Contributing to bullish sentiment (in addition to still-accommodative monetary policy) are the ongoing bull market, sustained economic expansion and earnings growth.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

  • Bullish: 27.9%, up 5.3 percentage points
  • Neutral: 42.9%, up 0.6 percentage points
  • Bearish: 29.2%, down 5.9 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 39.0%
  • Neutral: 31.0%
  • Bearish: 30.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.). The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.



Sell OF THE WEEK 7/8/2015

Posted on July 8, 2015 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Mitcham Industries (MIND) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Sell of the week





AAII WEEKLY FEATURE 7/7/2015

Posted on July 7, 2015 | Weekly Features

Investor-Update

This week’s AAII Weekly Features has been updated.
View this week’s Top AAII Articles, Featured Stock Screen and Member Question.

Read more »



BUY OF THE WEEK 7/7/2015

Posted on July 7, 2015 | Podcast

AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why MEDNAX (MD) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.

Audio url: Buy of the week




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