Sell OF THE WEEK 2/12/2014
Posted on February 12, 2014 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why Kansas City Southern (KSU) is his “Sell of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Sell of the week
AAII WEEKLY FEATURES 2/11/2014
Posted on February 11, 2014 | Weekly Features
This week’s AAII Weekly Features has been updated.
View this week’s Top AAII Articles, Featured Stock Screen and Member Question.
BUY OF THE WEEK 2/11/2014
Posted on February 11, 2014 | Podcast
AAII Journal Editor Charles Rotblut Editor explains to Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch why American Vanguard (AVD) is his “Buy of the Week” on the MoneyLife Radio Program. MoneyLife is a daily personal finance show that sorts through the financial clutter to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Audio url: Buy of the week
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Los Angeles
Posted on February 8, 2014 | Local Chapters
Date: Saturday, February 15, 2014
Topic: Hard Times Mean Easy Money is Here to Stay
Speaker: Cullen Roche, Founder, Orcam Financial Group
In this presentation, Cullen Roche will bring a thorough perspective on quantitative easing (QE), how the program functions at an operational level and what we can expect in the future. He will explain QE’s monetary transmission mechanism and how its effects ripple through the economy, as well as the behavioral effects of QE and the many myths revolving around its implementation and efficacy. Roche will also lay out potential effects of tapering on various asset classes and the global economy, and show to construct a macro-oriented portfolio using his concept of a “Total Portfolio.”
DIVIDEND INVESTING ALERT FOR THE WEEK ENDING 2/7/2014
Posted on February 7, 2014 | Dividend Investing
Betting the farm with our new stock.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Albuquerque
Posted on February 6, 2014 | Local Chapters
Date: Thursday, February 13, 2014
Topic: Using Quantitative Tools to Complement Fundamental Research
Speaker: John Moore, CIMA, CIS, Principal, John Moore & Associates, Inc.
The CAPx model was developed by John Moore & Associates (JMA) in 1999 to determine the potential value of a stock. It has since evolved to allow detailed analysis of the overall market. Its unique methodology also provides a forward-looking risk measurement tool. John Moore will also present an in-depth fundamental market and economic analysis.
How to Set and Revise Realistic Price Targets for Your Stocks
Posted on February 6, 2014 | Investing
An investor over time attaches some validity to his or her initial price objective, meaning that modifying that expectation becomes difficult for reasons totally contained only between one’s ears.
But stocks go where they want to, despite what any participants think is justified and despite what investors might wish would happen. Investors unable or unwilling to let go of original price opinions are doomed to lose, either through losses in positions that never come back, and/or from better opportunities elsewhere that have been lost.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rises to Highest Level since August
Posted on February 6, 2014 | AAII Survey
Short-term pessimism among individual investors rose to levels not seen last since last August, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, bullish sentiment fell for the fifth time in six weeks.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 4.3 percentage points to 27.9%. This is the lowest level of optimism registered by our survey since April 18, 2013. It is also the first time bullish sentiment has been below 30% since August 22, 2013. The historical average is 39.0%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, edged up 0.6 percentage points to 35.7%. This is the fifth consecutive week with a neutral sentiment reading above the historical average of 30.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.6 percentage points to 36.4%. This is the highest level of pessimism registered by our survey since August 22, 2013. It is also the first time bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30.5% on consecutive weeks since September 5, 2013.
As noted above, optimism among individual investors continues to fall. Bullish sentiment is down a cumulative 27.2 percentage points since reaching 55.1% on December 26, 2013. Bearish sentiment, meanwhile, is up a cumulative 17.9 percentage points over the same period.
The market’s pullback continues to cast clouds over AAII members’ short-term outlook, likely heightening concerns about both stock valuations and whether the market established a short-term top at the start of the year. Also playing a role is the pace of economic growth and Washington politics. Tempering the pessimism is earnings growth, economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its bond purchases.
This week’s special question asked AAII members what impact emerging markets are having on their six-month outlook for U.S. stocks. Approximately 30% of respondents said emerging markets are not influencing their outlook for U.S. stocks, while 23% said emerging markets are having a negative influence. The level of how negative the influence was varied by respondent, but many of the respondents in this second group thought emerging market countries are creating downward pressure on U.S. stocks. A smaller group, about 10%, said emerging markets are having a small impact on their outlook for U.S. stocks.
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
- Bullish: 27.9%, down 4.3 percentage points
- Neutral: 35.7%, up 0.6 percentage points
- Bearish: 36.4%, up 3.6 percentage points
- Bullish: 39.0%
- Neutral: 30.5%
- Bearish: 30.5%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online at: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Two Notable Mutual Fund Trends
Posted on February 6, 2014 | Investor Update
Yacktman Focused (YAFFX), a fund we recently deleted from the AAII Model Fund Portfolio, is one of a relatively small group of value-oriented mutual funds to close last year. When a mutual fund closes, it either stops accepting investment dollars from new investors or stops accepting any new investment dollars, be it from new or existing shareholders. Some funds may partially close by removing themselves from broker networks and requiring new investors to directly go through the fund. The latter is what the Sequoia Fund (SEQUX), which I own, did for a while before completing closing its doors to new investors at the end of last year.
Upcoming Chapter Meeting: AAII Columbus
Posted on February 5, 2014 | Local Chapters
Date: Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Topic: Fidelity Market Analysis, Research and Education Presents 2013 Market Update
Speaker: Matt Estep, CFP, Vice President and Regional Planning Consultant, Fidelity Investments
Matt Estep of Fidelity Investments will provide a summary and analysis of the world’s economic activity in 2013.