Politics, Earnings Influence Six-month Stock Outlook for Members


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. Slightly more than half of all respondents (51%) said politics. The overwhelming majority of these respondents specifically referenced President Donald Trump. About 13% of all respondents said earnings were influencing their outlook, while an equal percentage said interest rates and monetary policy. Slightly more than 12% referenced the economy. Approximately 8% referenced geopolitics. Some respondents listed more than one factor.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “The Trump political situation.”
  • “Lack of progress in repealing the Affordable Care Act and reforming the tax code.”
  • “Rising interest rates and the lack of other investment options.”
  • “The stock market at present is way overvalued.”
  • “The positive earnings season just completed.”

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