Presidential Election, Domestic Economy Weighing on Stock Outlooks


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are currently most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. More than one out every four respondents (27%) mentioned the presidential election. (One member described it as “the craziest presidential election in my lifetime.”) The domestic economy was second, listed both positively and negatively by 21% of respondents. An additional 13% pointed to global economic weakness and uncertainty, particularly in China and Europe. Nearly 17% cited the Federal Reserve and potential interest rate hikes. Slightly more than 15% said that oil and commodity prices are influencing their outlook for stock prices. Terrorism and global unrest tied with earnings, with each named by about 14% of respondents. Less than 6% of AAII members mentioned prevailing valuations. The majority of respondents listed more than one factor influencing their outlook.

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