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Presidential Election, Domestic Economy Weighing on Stock Outlooks

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are currently most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. More than one out every four respondents (27%) mentioned the presidential election. (One member described it as “the craziest presidential election in my lifetime.”) The domestic economy was second, listed both positively and negatively by 21% of respondents. An additional 13% pointed to global economic weakness and uncertainty, particularly in China and Europe. Nearly 17% cited the Federal Reserve and potential interest rate hikes. Slightly more than 15% said that oil and commodity prices are influencing their outlook for stock prices. Terrorism and global unrest tied with earnings, with each named by about 14% of respondents. Less than 6% of AAII members mentioned prevailing valuations. The majority of respondents listed more than one factor influencing their outlook.

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

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