How a portfolio performs relative to your expectations may impact how happy or unhappy you will be.
Whether an investor is happy or unhappy with his performance is significantly influenced by how his portfolio performs relative to the market. Investors are likely to be happy even if they lose money as long as their portfolio declines by a smaller magnitude than the broad market. Conversely, the proportion of investors likely to be unhappy rises during periods of strong market returns.
This conclusion is based on a study of British individual investors. Over 600 self-directed investors at Barclays Stockbrokers were surveyed during the period of September 2008 through September 2010. Respondents had a median age of 53 and median wealth of approximately $252,000. Answers were compared against actual returns.
The average threshold for anticipated happiness was a three-month gain of 5.4%. The average threshold for anticipated unhappiness was a three-month decline of 0.2%. Expectations for the level of returns that would lead to happiness did not alter much after the initial quarterly survey period, even though the FTSE All-Share Index (benchmark for the UK equity market) rebounded strongly from the financial crisis. Individual thresholds varied greatly; some respondents were happy even with a modestly negative return, while others required returns in excess of 20%. A strong positive relationship existed between return expectations and the minimum return an investor would be happy with.