Schaeffer’s Investment Research: AAII Sentiment Levels Flashing Short-Term “Buy” for S&P Stocks

This week Schaeffer’s Investment Research published an article indicating that bullishness among AAII members has more than doubled in less than a month to 49.9% as of last week. This is the highest reading since January 1, 2015. Past analysis from AAII had indicated that its Investor Sentiment Survey is more of a contrarian indicator,…

 

Too Much Confidence Is Bad for Your Portfolio

Higher levels of confidence about one’s ability to invest lead to worse returns. I realize that this may seem counterintuitive to some of you, but this is the conclusion of a study accepted by the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance (an earlier version of the study is available on SSRN). It’s yet another example of…

 

The Incredibly Shrinking Fed Growth Forecasts

Seemingly overlooked in all of the hubbub about a possible rate hike occurring at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the longer-term trend of falling growth forecasts. FOMC members have collectively reduced their real (“inflation-adjusted”) long-run GDP growth forecasts for at least five consecutive years. The current long-run forecast calls for 1.80%…

 

The Debate Over Retirement Income Strategies

As millions of baby boomers are either retiring or nearing retirement, there is an ongoing debate on how to manage one’s portfolio heading into and once in retirement. Here’s a glimpse into it: While at last week’s Morningstar Investment Conference, I tweeted a comment made by Morningstar’s David Blanchett about the likelihood of success for…

 

AAII Investor Update: Protecting Your Digital Assets

A part of the process for managing your finances that is easy to overlook is protecting your digital assets. Not your online persona (e.g., “Fly Fishing Bill”), but your records, statements, passwords, etc. Computer viruses, malware and identity theft are certainly concerns to take action on, but so is protecting your files containing your financial…

 

Chinese Economy Has Variable Impact on Investor Attitudes

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members why or why not the Chinese economy and stock indexes are impacting their six-month outlook for U.S. stocks. There was no consensus response. The largest group, 15% of responses, said that China’s problems are adversely effecting global economic growth and commodity prices. Slightly more than 13%…