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With May starting in just a few days, those of you who are sensitive to the market’s semiannual cycles may be reciting the chorus of The Clash’s 1982 hit, “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” A better question would be “Should I Stay or Should I Rotate?” Staying would mean...

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members for their opinion about the current pace of economic growth. Forty percent of respondents described the pace of growth as slow, too slow or sluggish. Several of the respondents believe that the pace of economic...

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices rebounded to its highest level in two months. At the same time, the percentage of investors describing their outlooks as either neutral or pessimistic fell. All three sentiment indicators are now...

A year ago, I began including doodles with my weekly commentary. The first one was a sketch discussing the impact of changes in earnings forecasts on stock prices. The purpose was to visually highlight and graphically explain one of the points I was making. Being a writer who...

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what influence the performance of small-cap stocks has on their outlook for stock prices. More than four out of 10 (43%) respondents said that small-cap stocks either have no influence or have only a small/minimal...

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at a new post-election low, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, neutral sentiment is at a two-month high and pessimism remains above its historical average. Bullish...

Consider this scenario: You are presented with two market environments. In the first, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 10% and is holding onto its gain heading into what should be a good earnings season. In the second, the S&P 500 has not only pulled back, but also closed...

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how, if at all, they have adjusted their stock investing strategies recently. Responses were very mixed. The largest group, 22% of all respondents, said that they have not made any change. Approximately 21% said...

The percentage of individual investors expecting stocks to rise in price is below 30% for a second consecutive week. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a rise in neutral sentiment and a decline in pessimism. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over...

A prelude to this week’s commentary: BlackRock made financial news headlines by announcing a change in how some of its active mutual funds will be managed. Rather than rely on human stock picking, the company is shifting to a heavy reliance on quantitative strategies. Commentary...