An Updated Look at the Yield Curve and Stock Market Volatility

Last week, the yield on the five-year Treasury note fell below that of the two-year note. Any investor could have realized a higher yield for tying up their money for only two years rather than for five years. The yield curve—which plots the interest rates for Treasuries of varying maturities—is not supposed to work this…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Surges to a 5½-Year High

Pessimism among individual investors jumped to its highest level in more than five and a half years in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism plunged, and neutral sentiment declined. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 17.0 percentage points to 20.9%. Optimism was last lower on May 25,…

 

The Taxes You May Be Paying on Your Investments

Depending on what you invest in, this may be a year where you both incur a loss of portfolio value and owe capital gains taxes. This is particularly true if you hold actively managed mutual funds in a taxable account. Even if you don’t hold mutual funds in a taxable account, the new tax law…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Reverts Back to Average

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market pulled back to its historical average in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism and neutral sentiment both rose. As discussed below, timing played a role. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 4.1 percentage points to…

 

What to Do When Gains Are Hard to Come By

If you feel like you have struggled this year to realize good or even positive returns, you are not alone. This has been a very tough year for investors. Though yesterday’s comments by Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell helped, returns for most asset classes and categories range from being down to only modestly up year…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Pulls Back, But Still High

Pessimism among individual investors pulled back from a 33-month high but remains well above average. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a rebound in optimism and a decline in neutral sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 8.6 percentage points to 33.9%. The increase was not…

 

Reasons for Individual Investors to Be Grateful

In his TED Talk, David Steindl-Rast makes the case for happiness being directly tied to gratitude. The monk and interfaith scholar says people who are more grateful tend to also be happier people. I’m referring to Steindl-Rast not only because he gave a great talk (to be fair, I’m a fan of TED Talks in general),…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Extends Streak of Above-Average Readings

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market rose, extending its streak of above-average readings. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a drop in optimism and higher neutral sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 6.2 percentage points to 35.1%….