Increasingly, Just One Analyst Is Behind a Stock’s Long-Term Earnings Forecast

Based on casual analysis, it seems there has been a decline in the number of analysts making long-term earnings forecasts on publicly traded stocks. When the subject was raised during a regular portfolio review meeting, we lacked the evidence to support or debunk this hunch. So, using AAII’s Stock Investor Pro stock screening and database…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rises But Stays Below Average

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market rose but remains below average. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows declines in neutral and bearish sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 4.2 percentage points to 36.2%. Even with the increase, optimism remains…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Expectations Largely Unchanged

Individual investors’ expectations for the short-term direction of the stock market are largely unchanged from a week ago. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows a slight increase in neutral sentiment and a slight decrease in pessimism. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, held steady at 32.0%. The historical…

 

Mr. Market Has Reverted Back to a Calm State

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal observed in its morning briefing that “The S&P 500 has gone 53 trading days without a move of 1% in either direction, the longest such streak since January.” As of today’s close, the streak now stands at 56 days. This is just the fifth time in five years that…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Drops to a Six-Week Low

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market fell to its lowest level in six weeks. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a strong rise in pessimism and a rebound in neutral sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 10.1 percentage points…

 

Helpful Steps My Late Father-in-Law Took

Special note: This commentary originally ran in March 2017. I received more feedback about it than any other Investor Update column I’ve written over the past eight years. Since many of you found it helpful and I’m out of the office this week, I decided to republish it. My father-in-law passed last week. Les was…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism and Neutral Sentiment Decline

Optimism and neutral sentiment among individual investors fell slightly from last week, while pessimism increased according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.3 percentage points to 42.2%. The historical average is 38.5%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Highest Optimism/Lowest Pessimism Since June

Optimism among individual investors reached its highest level, while pessimism fell to its lowest level, since June in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This week’s results also show a decline in neutral sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.0 percentage points to 43.5%. Optimism was last…

 

What You Can Expect at the AAII Conference

Those of you who regularly read my weekly commentary know that I attend conferences and other industry events. The presentations are generally informative, but it’s the personal interaction that’s the big draw for me. I’ve made numerous connections over the years, many I never would have made had I simply stayed in my office. Those…