AAII Investor Update: Kahneman on Decision-Making, and Other Morningstar Conference Notes

Nobel laureate and psychologist Daniel Kahneman shared insights from his current research about decision-making at this year’s Morningstar Investment Conference. He described noisy interferences in the decision-making process as being more important than systematic errors. Noise is something that interferes with the decision-making process, particularly irrelevant factors influencing a person’s judgments. Irrelevant factors can include…

 

The Influence of Perception on the Urge to Trade

Consider this scenario: You are presented with two market environments. In the first, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 10% and is holding onto its gain heading into what should be a good earnings season. In the second, the S&P 500 has not only pulled back, but also closed below its 50-day moving average for…