The Stretch of Low Optimism Continues

Last month, optimism and pessimism in our weekly Sentiment Survey reached unusual levels. Bullish sentiment plunged to 20.9% on December 12, 2018, while bearish sentiment jumped to a multi-year high of 50.3% by the end of December. Of the two, unusually low readings for optimism have a stronger record of being a contrarian indicator. The…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Jumps

The percentage of individual investors describing their short-term outlook as “bullish” jumped by nearly six percentage points, setting a new four-month high. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a drop in pessimism and a small decline in neutral sentiment. Most of this week’s responses were recorded before yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement and updated committee members’ forecasts were…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Bounces to a 15-Week High

The percentage of individual investors expressing optimism about the short-term outlook for stocks is at a 15-week high. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a decline in neutral sentiment and a modest increase in pessimism. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 3.9 percentage points to 38.9%….

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Declines

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows a decline in optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market. At the same time, both neutral and bearish sentiment are modestly higher. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined by 3.5 percentage points to 35.0%. The drop…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds to a Three-Month High

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stocks continues to rebound and is now at three-month high. Pessimism is also higher in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, while neutral sentiment has fallen back into its typical range. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, extended its rebound…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Second-Lowest Level of Pessimism for 2018

The percentage of individual investors expressing pessimism about their short-term outlook for stocks is at its second-lowest level of the year, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, the percentage of individual investors describing their outlook as “neutral” is above 40% for a third consecutive week. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock…

 

Schaeffer’s Investment Research: AAII Sentiment Levels Flashing Short-Term “Buy” for S&P Stocks

This week Schaeffer’s Investment Research published an article indicating that bullishness among AAII members has more than doubled in less than a month to 49.9% as of last week. This is the highest reading since January 1, 2015. Past analysis from AAII had indicated that its Investor Sentiment Survey is more of a contrarian indicator,…

 

Using ETFs to Identify Quality Stocks

If one were to survey investors about what traits make a stock attractive, the top of the list would include an attractive valuation, a reasonable expectation of a price increase (particularly sooner rather than later), a sound underlying business model and good fundamentals. The first two traits are easy to identify: seek out below-average valuations…

 

A Strategy for Losing Money

I can give you a name of a fund trading with the equivalent of a 23% sales charge. It’s actively managed by a company that’s incurred large outflows from its signature mutual fund following the departure of its star chief investment officer. Interested in owning it? You probably aren’t, but some investors were. PIMCO’s Municipal…