Policy Will Influence Stock Prices the Most, Say One-Third of Polled Investors

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought will most influence the direction of stock prices in 2017. More than a third of all respondents (37%) said the policies instituted by the Trump administration and the legislation passed by the Republican-controlled Congress. Tax reform was listed by 18% of respondents, while…

 

Fed Raises Short-Term Rates for First Time in a Year as Dow Flirts with 20,000

After going a year since its last rate increase, the Federal Reserve surprised almost no one by announcing this week that it was raising the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point—to between 0.50% and 0.75%—and that officials now expect to raise short-term rates more often in 2017. That it has been a…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Lowest Neutral Sentiment Since November 2014

The percentage of individual investors describing their market outlook as “neutral” is now at its lowest level in more than two years, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism extended its rebound, and optimism is higher as well. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 1.5 percentage points…

 

“Trump Rally” Catches Second Wind, Market Dashboard Holds Steady

Weekly Market Summary This week marked the one-month anniversary since Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential election to Donald Trump. The so-called “Trump Rally” in U.S. stocks caught its second wind this week on the wings of strong consumer sentiment data and rising oil prices. On Wednesday, several of the major U.S. indexes posted their biggest…

 

Market Rally Gains Momentum, Reaching Rarified Air

Friday marked the one-month anniversary since Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential election to Donald Trump. Since the close on November 8, Election Day, the majority of U.S. stocks has seen a strong gain. This week, though, the “Trump Bump” seemingly found a higher gear. On Wednesday, several of the major U.S. indexes posted their biggest…

 

Post-Election Stock Price Rise Gives Investors Mixed Feelings

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought about the post-election rise in stock prices. Responses were mixed. The largest group, nearly 38% of all respondents, think prices are rising on expectation of the changes President-elect Donald Trump will bring. The easing of business regulations and lower taxes were specifically mentioned….

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Tops 40% for Fourth Week

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is above 40% for a fourth consecutive week for the first time in approximately two years. This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a decline in neutral sentiment and a modest rise in pessimism. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the…

 

Stock Superstars Report: November Recap & December Portfolio Changes

This week we performed our monthly Stock Superstars Report (SSR) portfolio review and made some changes. For more information on this month’s deletions and additions, read the December SSR Monthly Report available online. November Market Recap In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, U.S. stocks, for the most part, have rallied strongly. This is quite…

 

Sentiment Supports the Borrowing of 2017 Gains Argument

Support for the concept of the post-election (“Trump”) rally borrowing gains from 2017 can be found in our Sentiment Survey. Optimism was both unusually low (a bullish sign) and unusually high (a bearish sign) in recent weeks. Though seemingly contradictory, the two signals may not be when the post-election rally is taken into account. I’ll…