Sentiment Supports the Borrowing of 2017 Gains Argument

Support for the concept of the post-election (“Trump”) rally borrowing gains from 2017 can be found in our Sentiment Survey. Optimism was both unusually low (a bullish sign) and unusually high (a bearish sign) in recent weeks. Though seemingly contradictory, the two signals may not be when the post-election rally is taken into account. I’ll…

 

An Election Trend That Might Not Be Repeatable

The election day is just 11 days away, thank goodness. As it nears, articles and reports are appearing about the election’s impact on the market. We’re going to discuss the data in the November Stock Superstars Report, which will be posted online Friday evening, but I’ll share some of the data here as well. Rather…

 

The Incredibly Shrinking Fed Growth Forecasts

Seemingly overlooked in all of the hubbub about a possible rate hike occurring at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the longer-term trend of falling growth forecasts. FOMC members have collectively reduced their real (“inflation-adjusted”) long-run GDP growth forecasts for at least five consecutive years. The current long-run forecast calls for 1.80%…

 

Taking on Risk and Hoping the Strategy Doesn’t Backfire

Oh boy. There’s something new to be filed under the category of, “Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time.” It is cash secured puts on the S&P 500. According to The Wall Street Journal, pension funds in Hawaii and South Carolina are using the strategy to generate income. It is a strategy…

 

Think Twice Before Making Your Own Market (Br)exit

There is an old investing adage: “the market is always right.” Investors would be wise to question this adage in light of last week’s Brexit referendum. If the market is always right, then why were traders bidding stocks up as the British were voting to leave the European Union? For that matter, why did stocks…

 

What is the Most Tax-Efficient Investment?

An AAII member recently asked, “What is the most tax-efficient investment?” Before you answer, stop and give the question some thought. The answer is not as straightforward as it may seem. A few factors influence the tax efficiency of investing. One, of course, is the type of investment. Municipal bonds receive very favorable tax treatment,…

 

The Factors to Include on Your Retirement Readiness Checklist

A new study is highly critical of the retirement planning tools available online. The authors, including financial planning expert Harold Evensky, called the advice provided from the majority of these tools “extremely misleading.” We discuss the study in the online version of the March AAII Journal, which will be posted on AAII.com next week. For…