Rate Hike Possibility Not Affecting Surveyed Investors

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how the possibility of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve is impacting their sentiment towards stocks. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of respondents said that a rate hike will have no or only very little change on their sentiment and/or portfolios. Many of these respondents view…

 

The Incredibly Shrinking Fed Growth Forecasts

Seemingly overlooked in all of the hubbub about a possible rate hike occurring at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the longer-term trend of falling growth forecasts. FOMC members have collectively reduced their real (“inflation-adjusted”) long-run GDP growth forecasts for at least five consecutive years. The current long-run forecast calls for 1.80%…

 

Over 4 in 10 Respondents Dissatisfied With Federal Reserve Communications

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members for their opinion about how clearly the Federal Reserve is communicating its monetary policy intentions. More than four out of every 10 respondents (44%) are not satisfied with the Fed’s communication about monetary policy. These respondents described it as being unclear, poor, inconsistent or needing improvement. …

 

Do You Need Growth for Successful Stock Picking?

A new stock screen I created omits one characteristic that may surprise some (or perhaps many) of you: growth. Nothing in the screen requires a passing company to be growing revenues or profits. It is an admitted deviation from how I’ve previously looked for stocks. I’m not alone in omitting growth. The four AAII Stock…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism at Highest Level Since February

The percentage of individual investors expressing pessimism about the short-term direction of the stock market is at its highest level since February. This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a slight increase in neutral sentiment and a further decline in optimism. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell…

 

A Request to Parents of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers

To parents of my fellow Generation X members, as well as parents of Baby Boomers, we—your adult sons and daughters—want to hear from you. We want to know how your health is. We want to know how financially stable you are. We want to hear about any potential problems as soon as they occur, not…

 

The Debate Over Retirement Income Strategies

As millions of baby boomers are either retiring or nearing retirement, there is an ongoing debate on how to manage one’s portfolio heading into and once in retirement. Here’s a glimpse into it: While at last week’s Morningstar Investment Conference, I tweeted a comment made by Morningstar’s David Blanchett about the likelihood of success for…

 

Over Half of Surveyed Investors Agree With The Fed’s Rate Decision

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members whether the Federal Open Market Committee was correct in keeping interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. More than half of respondents (56%) said the Fed was correct not to raise rates. Slow domestic economic growth and global uncertainty—including today’s Brexit vote—were the primary reasons given…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls to a Four-Week Low

The number of individual investors expecting stock prices to rise over the short term is at a four-week low, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment rebounded strongly, while pessimism pulled back slightly. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 3.4 percentage points to 22.0%. Optimism…

 

Overwhelming Number of Individual Investors Think Federal Reserve Has Too Much Power

Last week’s AAII special question asked how much power individual investors feel the Federal Reserve has over boosting the U.S. economy and the stock market. In all, 439 members responded. Among those that addressed whether the Federal Reserve has too much or too little power (75 in all), an overwhelming percentage–97.3%–feel that the Fed has too…