Notes From the Morningstar Investment Conference

This week, Morningstar held its annual Investment Conference. Attended primarily by financial advisers, the conference is notable for both its size and its mutual fund focus (though there were sessions on other topics). This week, I’ll share some of my notes and observations. You’ll see a few articles resulting from meetings I had at the…

 

Why a New Asset Allocation Approach is Needed

This week’s AAII Weekly Digest highlights these “must-read” AAII articles: Why a New Allocation Approach is Needed: The traditional way of allocating portfolios costs investors significant wealth and fails to consider how risk actually occurs in the real world. In his forthcoming book, “Investing at Level3,” AAII founder James Cloonan challenges the traditional manner in which…

 

Over Half of Surveyed Members Unaffected by Europe News

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how big of an impact news and data about Europe, including Great Britain, is having on their outlook for the U.S. stock market. Nearly three out of five respondents (58%) said it was either not affecting their outlook or only having a small impact. Many…

 

What You Need to Know About Crowdfunding

Effective this week, just about anyone in the U.S. can play the role of venture capitalist. New crowdfunding rules went into effect on Monday that allow non-accredited investors to risk up to $2,000 or 5% of their annual income or net worth (whichever is less) in a start-up company during a 12-month period. Those with…

 

One in Three Survey Respondents Want to Change Political Climate

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what one thing they would change about the environment if they had a magic wand. More than one out of three (35%) of respondents said politics, particularly the election, taxes (many want to see reform), regulation and fiscal policy. Monetary policy was listed by 13% of…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls to a Five-Month Low

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at its lowest level in five months, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Nonetheless, less than one in three individual investors are optimistic. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 5.0 percentage points to…

 

Presidential Election, Domestic Economy Weighing on Stock Outlooks

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are currently most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. More than one out every four respondents (27%) mentioned the presidential election. (One member described it as “the craziest presidential election in my lifetime.”) The domestic economy was second, listed both positively and negatively by…

 

One in Three Respondents See Negative Impact From the Fed

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what type of impact they perceive monetary policy to be having on the stock market. More than one out of three respondents (37%) said that the Federal Reserve is having a negative impact. Several (12% of all respondents) believe that continued low interest rates are artificially…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Rises to a 2016 High

The percentage of individual investors describing their short-term outlook for stock prices as neutral jumped to its highest level of the year, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism plunged, while pessimism rose for the first time in five weeks. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell…

 

Where the NASDAQ Is Less Likely to Close At

Call up a one-year chart of the NASDAQ Composite index and you’ll notice a line of support and resistance around 4,900. Extend the chart to cover three years, and a second support/resistance line appears at approximately 4,600. Those support/resistance areas may not be not completely attributable to randomness. The authors of a manuscript accepted by…