AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Declines While Neutral and Bullish Sentiment Rise

Pessimism among individual investors fell from last week’s AAII Sentiment Survey, while bullish and neutral sentiment rose. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rose over the next six months, rose 1.2 percentage points, to 31.2%. Despite the slight increase, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 38.5% for the third week in a…

 

U.S. Indexes Mark 25-Year Milestone

Please note that U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, February 20, in observance of Washington’s Birthday (President’s Day). AAII offices will also be closed. This week saw several market indexes notch multiple all-time highs. The Dow Jones industrial average recorded its fifth consecutive record close on Wednesday, the second such streak in roughly two…

 

Fed Raises Rates While Dashboard Indicators Stand Pat

Weekly Market Summary After going a year since its last rate increase, the Federal Reserve announced this week that it was raising the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point—to between 0.50% and 0.75%—and that officials now expect to raise short-term rates more often in 2017. This is only the second rate increase…

 

Fed Raises Short-Term Rates for First Time in a Year as Dow Flirts with 20,000

After going a year since its last rate increase, the Federal Reserve surprised almost no one by announcing this week that it was raising the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point—to between 0.50% and 0.75%—and that officials now expect to raise short-term rates more often in 2017. That it has been a…

 

Those 2017 Fed Forecasts May Prove to Be Wrong

There are two questions investors may have following yesterday’s rate hike. The first is: What happens next? The second is: What do I do now? The short answers are: Don’t put too much faith into the forecasts and enjoy the marginally higher level of interest income, but don’t make big changes. I will expound on…

 

Market Rally Gains Momentum, Reaching Rarified Air

Friday marked the one-month anniversary since Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential election to Donald Trump. Since the close on November 8, Election Day, the majority of U.S. stocks has seen a strong gain. This week, though, the “Trump Bump” seemingly found a higher gear. On Wednesday, several of the major U.S. indexes posted their biggest…

 

Not Clear That Mutual Funds Are Becoming More Tax Friendly

This is the time of year when mutual funds make their annual distributions. The distributions, in this case, involve capital gains and ordinary income. They are the profits realized by the funds, most commonly through the sale of their portfolio’s holdings. To the extent that these gains cannot be offset by losses, they are passed…

 

CI Market Dashboard: Bulls Tighten Grip in Post-Election Rally

Weekly Market Summary This week saw U.S. stocks, for the most part, continue their upward march in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential election victory. Major indexes hit record highs and the U.S. dollar, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index, climbed to a 13-year high. It also seems a near certainty that the Federal…

 

Putting the Rise in Bond Yields Into Perspective

Bond yields have suddenly found themselves in the financial headlines. Since Donald Trump became president-elect, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen from 1.86% on Election Day to a near-term closing high of 2.22% on Tuesday. That is nearly a half-percentage point jump in just seven days. (The closing yield was slightly higher today,…

 

An Election Trend That Might Not Be Repeatable

The election day is just 11 days away, thank goodness. As it nears, articles and reports are appearing about the election’s impact on the market. We’re going to discuss the data in the November Stock Superstars Report, which will be posted online Friday evening, but I’ll share some of the data here as well. Rather…