Those 2017 Fed Forecasts May Prove to Be Wrong

There are two questions investors may have following yesterday’s rate hike. The first is: What happens next? The second is: What do I do now? The short answers are: Don’t put too much faith into the forecasts and enjoy the marginally higher level of interest income, but don’t make big changes. I will expound on…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Lowest Neutral Sentiment Since November 2014

The percentage of individual investors describing their market outlook as “neutral” is now at its lowest level in more than two years, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism extended its rebound, and optimism is higher as well. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 1.5 percentage points…

 

Market Rally Gains Momentum, Reaching Rarified Air

Friday marked the one-month anniversary since Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential election to Donald Trump. Since the close on November 8, Election Day, the majority of U.S. stocks has seen a strong gain. This week, though, the “Trump Bump” seemingly found a higher gear. On Wednesday, several of the major U.S. indexes posted their biggest…

 

Stock Superstars Report: November Recap & December Portfolio Changes

This week we performed our monthly Stock Superstars Report (SSR) portfolio review and made some changes. For more information on this month’s deletions and additions, read the December SSR Monthly Report available online. November Market Recap In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, U.S. stocks, for the most part, have rallied strongly. This is quite…

 

AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Cash Holdings Fall to a 16-Month Low

Individual investors have reduced their cash holdings, on a percentage basis, to the smallest amount since the spring of 2015, according to the November AAII Asset Allocation Survey. Fixed-income allocations declined as well. Conversely, equity allocations rose to their second-highest level of the year. Stock and stock fund allocations rose 1.7 percentage points to 66.4%….

 

Putting the Rise in Bond Yields Into Perspective

Bond yields have suddenly found themselves in the financial headlines. Since Donald Trump became president-elect, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen from 1.86% on Election Day to a near-term closing high of 2.22% on Tuesday. That is nearly a half-percentage point jump in just seven days. (The closing yield was slightly higher today,…

 

Rate Hike Possibility Not Affecting Surveyed Investors

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how the possibility of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve is impacting their sentiment towards stocks. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of respondents said that a rate hike will have no or only very little change on their sentiment and/or portfolios. Many of these respondents view…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Surges; At Highest Level in a Year

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market surged to its highest level since last November in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment plunged to its lowest level in more than 10 months. Bearish sentiment is lower as well. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next…

 

Surveyed Members Ambivalent on Housing Market

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members about their perception of the current state of the housing market. The two largest groups of respondents were nearly evenly split, and opinions overall were mixed. Nearly 27% of described the housing market as either being overvalued, weak or otherwise at risk of weakening. About 25%…

 

Over 4 in 10 Respondents Dissatisfied With Federal Reserve Communications

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members for their opinion about how clearly the Federal Reserve is communicating its monetary policy intentions. More than four out of every 10 respondents (44%) are not satisfied with the Fed’s communication about monetary policy. These respondents described it as being unclear, poor, inconsistent or needing improvement. …