The Stretch of Low Optimism Continues

Last month, optimism and pessimism in our weekly Sentiment Survey reached unusual levels. Bullish sentiment plunged to 20.9% on December 12, 2018, while bearish sentiment jumped to a multi-year high of 50.3% by the end of December. Of the two, unusually low readings for optimism have a stronger record of being a contrarian indicator. The…

 

Optimism Has Been Low This Year, but Not Unusually So

This week notwithstanding, optimism about the short-term direction of the stock market has been below average for 40 out of 50 weeks this year in our AAII Sentiment Survey. Given this trend, I was curious as to how 2017 compares to the 30 previous years tracked by our survey. So, I updated the historical analysis…