The Incredibly Shrinking Fed Growth Forecasts

Seemingly overlooked in all of the hubbub about a possible rate hike occurring at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the longer-term trend of falling growth forecasts. FOMC members have collectively reduced their real (“inflation-adjusted”) long-run GDP growth forecasts for at least five consecutive years. The current long-run forecast calls for 1.80%…

 

The Earnings Quality Indicator Used by ETFs

Look under the hood of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) incorporating a quality factor and you will often find accruals being used. An accrual is an accounting entry recorded at the time a transaction occurs, regardless of whether not payment has been made. Accrual accounting allows businesses to report their sales and earnings performance without being beholden…

 

Taking on Risk and Hoping the Strategy Doesn’t Backfire

Oh boy. There’s something new to be filed under the category of, “Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time.” It is cash secured puts on the S&P 500. According to The Wall Street Journal, pension funds in Hawaii and South Carolina are using the strategy to generate income. It is a strategy…

 

A Strategy for Losing Money

I can give you a name of a fund trading with the equivalent of a 23% sales charge. It’s actively managed by a company that’s incurred large outflows from its signature mutual fund following the departure of its star chief investment officer. Interested in owning it? You probably aren’t, but some investors were. PIMCO’s Municipal…