Too Much Confidence Is Bad for Your Portfolio

Higher levels of confidence about one’s ability to invest lead to worse returns. I realize that this may seem counterintuitive to some of you, but this is the conclusion of a study accepted by the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance (an earlier version of the study is available on SSRN). It’s yet another example of…

 

Jeopardy! Shows Humans Don’t Maximize Profits

One of the common behavioral biases is anchoring. Anchoring is basing expectations and viewpoints on previous, often recent, information. An example would be the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The benchmark bond yielded 1.59% today. If it were to rise over the short term to, say, 2.0%, your opinion would likely be that rates…

 

Where Is the Bond Armageddon?

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal published an article headlined, “Rock-Bottom Bond Yields in Europe Hit All-Time Lows.” Thursday morning, a headline on The Financial Times’ website declared: “Relentless: Bund Yields Take Fresh Step Down.” The headlines were written in reaction to what is occurring in global bond markets. Earlier today, yields on the 10-year…