Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices fell to a new 2017 low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, the percentage of individual investors describing their outlook as “neutral” is at a new high for the year. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the…
Factor investing came to the forefront in 1992 with Eugene Fama and Kenneth French’s paper “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns.” A factor is a characteristic or set of characteristics common to a broad set of securities that both explains performance and provides a premium or above-market return. Factors deliver above-market returns because investors demand…
The March 2017 AAII Journal is Now Available Online. Feature Article: The Top Mutual Funds Over Five Years: Health Care’s Dominance Is Weakening Four of the 10-best performing funds are from the health care category, but this number is down from seven last year. In This Issue: Mutual Funds » Tracking the S&P 500…
The percentage of individual investors describing their short-term market outlook as “neutral” decreased from last week, while pessimism has now been above 30% for three consecutive weeks for the first time since the election, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism bounced back slightly after declining three weeks in a row. Bullish sentiment, expectations…
Happy New Year! We have closed the books on 2016 and look out on the unwritten expanse of 2017. This time of year, it is customary for various news outlets to make predictions for the new year or ask its readers or followers what they think the new year has in store. Here at AAII…
This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how big of a percentage gain or loss the S&P 500 will realize in 2017. Just under three out of five respondents (59%) expect the large-cap index to post a gain next year. Slightly less than half anticipate a single-digit percentage-point rise, with 23% predicting an…
Optimism pulled back in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey after having risen significantly over the previous three weeks. Both neutral and bearish sentiment rebounded this week, after having both previously fallen. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell by 6.1 percentage points to 43.8%. The pullback follows last…
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is below 30% for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment rebounded, while pessimism pulled back. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 1.0 percentage points to 24.8%. Optimism is below…
According to FactSet, as of the market close on August 25, over 98% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the second calendar quarter earnings season. Of those, 71% have reported positive earnings surprises–actual earnings were above the mean estimate. For the second quarter, the blended earnings decline–reported earnings decline as well…
This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought about the S&P 500 rising to new record highs. Responses varied, as did the reasons given for those responses. About one out of three respondents (34%) either think the recent rally will not last or are concerned about its short-term sustainability. There was…
