AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Slips Despite New Record Highs

The further ascent by the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 index into record territory did not translate into higher optimism among individual investors. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows bullish sentiment—as well as neutral sentiment—declining, and bearish sentiment rising. The changes were modest, however. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise…

 

Over 1 in 3 Surveyed Investors Say Market Matched Expectations

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how the performance of the stock market over the first half of the year compares to their expectations. Slightly more than one out of three respondents said the returns matched their expectations. A nearly even number of respondents said the returns exceeded their expectations (20%) or…

 

Nearly Half of Surveyed Members Don’t Think Record Highs Matter

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members why it does or not matter if the major U.S. stock indexes rise above their record highs in the near term. Almost half of respondents (49%) said it does not matter. Many of these members said they invest for the long term and/or are more focused…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Fewest Bulls Since 2005

The percentage of individual investors optimistic about short-term gains occurring in the stock market is at its lowest level in 11 years. At the same time, the percentage of investors describing their outlook as neutral is at its highest level in 16 years, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock…

 

Rare to See Optimism Below 20% and Neutral Above 50%

A rare combination of readings was registered this week in our weekly sentiment survey: Bullish sentiment is below 20% and neutral sentiment is above 50%. Such a combination has only occurred five previous times since the AAII Sentiment Survey started in 1987. The table below shows these occurrences and how the S&P 500 fared following…

 

Neutral Sentiment Readings Above 50% Followed By Gains

Since the AAII Sentiment Survey started in 1987, a neutral sentiment reading above 50% has only been recorded 28 times. This week’s reading of 52.9% is the highest since April 12, 1990. During the 26 occurrences prior to December 30, 2015, the S&P 500 rose 24 times over the following 26-week period. The large-cap index…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Back Near Historic Lows

Optimism for a short-term rise in stock prices is below 20% for just the 30th time in the 29-year history of the AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, more than one in three individual investors now have a downbeat view about the short-term direction of stocks. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise…

 

Stocks Have Gained When Bullish Sentiment Is Below 20%

Since the AAII Sentiment Survey started in 1987, a bullish sentiment reading below 20% has only been recorded 30 times. This week’s reading of 19.3% marked the third time this year optimism has been 20%. During the previous 27 occurrences, the S&P 500 has risen 26 times. (The sole exception was January 10, 2008.) The…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls as Pessimism Rises

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices remained at a three-month low according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism is at an 11-week high, and neutral sentiment edged higher. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 1.9 percentage points to 20.4%. Optimism was…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls to a Three-Month Low

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at a three-month low according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism is at a 10-week high, and neutral sentiment is higher as well. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 5.0 percentage points to 22.3%….