Market Movement’s Impact on Portfolio Rebalancing

Sometimes, the market does the hard work for you. Such is the case with my 403(b) account, which is similar to a 401(k) account. Over the weekend, I looked at it for the first time in six months. I could have easily skipped doing so because Mr. Market took care of things for me. There…

 

Earnings Estimates’ Effect on Stock Prices

One of the most-discussed stock screens on the AAII discussion boards is Estimate Revisions: Up 5%. The screen seeks out companies with a one-month increase in the consensus earnings estimate for the current year of 5% or more. A post about the screen currently has 86 responses. Earnings estimates are forecasts made by analysts about how…

 

Too Much Confidence Is Bad for Your Portfolio

Higher levels of confidence about one’s ability to invest lead to worse returns. I realize that this may seem counterintuitive to some of you, but this is the conclusion of a study accepted by the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance (an earlier version of the study is available on SSRN). It’s yet another example of…

 

Do You Need Growth for Successful Stock Picking?

A new stock screen I created omits one characteristic that may surprise some (or perhaps many) of you: growth. Nothing in the screen requires a passing company to be growing revenues or profits. It is an admitted deviation from how I’ve previously looked for stocks. I’m not alone in omitting growth. The four AAII Stock…

 

Jeopardy! Shows Humans Don’t Maximize Profits

One of the common behavioral biases is anchoring. Anchoring is basing expectations and viewpoints on previous, often recent, information. An example would be the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The benchmark bond yielded 1.59% today. If it were to rise over the short term to, say, 2.0%, your opinion would likely be that rates…

 

A Request to Parents of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers

To parents of my fellow Generation X members, as well as parents of Baby Boomers, we—your adult sons and daughters—want to hear from you. We want to know how your health is. We want to know how financially stable you are. We want to hear about any potential problems as soon as they occur, not…

 

Retirement Can Be Long Enough for Something to Go Haywire

An interesting point was brought up at this week’s CFA Institute’s Financial Analysts Seminar: retirement is a long enough period of time for something to go haywire. The point was brought up by Barton Waring, a retired chief investor officer for Barclays (which is now BlackRock). He raised the topic during a discussion about retirement…

 

Valuing Stocks Based on Their Dividend

The subject of valuing stocks by their dividend is discussed in the June AAII Journal, which was posted to our website yesterday. Specifically, Computerized Investing editor Jaclyn McClellan takes an in-depth look at Geraldine Weiss’ approach. I’m going to extend the conversation by discussing Weiss’ and other dividend valuation strategies. Weiss used a relative valuation…

 

Don’t Be Quick to Sell (or Rotate) in May

This week marks the start of what the Stock Trader’s Almanac refers to as the “worst six months” for the stock market. Relative to the “best six months,” stocks historically underperform during the period of May through October. Underperformance, however, should not be confused with losing money. Sam Stovall, the U.S. equity strategist at S&P…