AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Declines; Now Back to Typical Level

Optimism among individual investors fell back into its typical historical range for the first time since mid-December. At the same time, both neutral and bearish sentiment rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 8.7 percentage points to 45.5%. Optimism was last…

 

Volatility Is Extraordinarily Low

Not only has volatility left the building, it appears to have climbed on to a hammock to take a summer’s nap. Yesterday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (the CBOE’s VIX) closed below 10 for the 10th consecutive day. Some perspective will help put the streak, which ended today, and the current levels into…

 

Stock Market’s “Fear Gauge” Hits 23-Year Low

A lot was written and talked about the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, this week. On Monday, it closed at 9.77, its lowest level since December 1993. This followed Friday’s close by both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes at new all-time highs. In addition, this was the first time in over 10 years…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Stays Below 30%

The percentage of individual investors expecting stocks to rise in price is below 30% for a second consecutive week. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a rise in neutral sentiment and a decline in pessimism. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, is modestly higher (0.7 percentage points)…

 

Lack of Downward Volatility Causing Bearish Outlook for 43% of Surveyed Investors

Last week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how the market’s relative lack of downward volatility this year (just one day with a decline of greater than 1% through March 22) has affected their sentiment toward stocks. Forty-three percent of respondents said that the lack of downward volatility has made them more bearish in…

 

Building a Balanced Portfolio: An Unconventional Allocation

It is easy to make money when the stock market is soaring. You really don’t need to read this article to prosper during those favorable environments. However, as experienced investors know, the key to long-term financial success is to survive the troughs. How does your portfolio perform during severe downturns? How vulnerable is it to…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Continues to Fall

The percentage of individual investors expecting stock prices to rise is down for a third consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment rose, while pessimism pulled back. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 0.8 percentage points to 24.0%. Optimism was last lower on June…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: More Than 1 Out of 3 Bearish

Pessimism jumped to a three-month high as more than one out of three individual investors described their short-term outlook as “bearish” in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, neutral sentiment fell to its lowest level since February. Bullish sentiment is also lower. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the…

 

Members Mixed on Recent Low Volatility

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought about the low level of volatility that has existed over the past several weeks. The responses were mixed. Nearly 17% described the low level of volatility as being normal for this time of year, and being attributable to the summer doldrums and/or vacations….

 

A Request to Parents of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers

To parents of my fellow Generation X members, as well as parents of Baby Boomers, we—your adult sons and daughters—want to hear from you. We want to know how your health is. We want to know how financially stable you are. We want to hear about any potential problems as soon as they occur, not…