Earnings Estimates’ Effect on Stock Prices

One of the most-discussed stock screens on the AAII discussion boards is Estimate Revisions: Up 5%. The screen seeks out companies with a one-month increase in the consensus earnings estimate for the current year of 5% or more. A post about the screen currently has 86 responses. Earnings estimates are forecasts made by analysts about how…

 

Investors Vote for Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks

Many people invest in dividend-paying stocks as a source of income and for the opportunity to reinvest the dividends to purchase additional shares of stock. Generally speaking, dividend-paying companies are seen as being more financially stable and mature. In turn, the stock prices of these companies may steadily increase over time while shareholders enjoy periodic…

 

Retirement Can Be Long Enough for Something to Go Haywire

An interesting point was brought up at this week’s CFA Institute’s Financial Analysts Seminar: retirement is a long enough period of time for something to go haywire. The point was brought up by Barton Waring, a retired chief investor officer for Barclays (which is now BlackRock). He raised the topic during a discussion about retirement…

 

How Impactful Are Changes in Analyst Ratings?

Before you give into any temptation to follow analysts’ recommendations, consider this conclusion from three researchers: “On average, analysts’ revisions are not highly correlated with subsequent long-run returns, indicating that analysts do not provide new information that is relevant for the long run for typical investors.” The finding is from an appropriately named paper published…

 

Momentum Investing & Turbulent Markets Don’t Mix

Momentum indicators are commonly used to find winners. Winners are stocks with comparatively higher price returns. In normal market conditions, momentum indicators work well on an aggregate basis. Momentum indicators can lose their usefulness in turbulent market conditions, in the initial rebound period following a bear market or during slowing economic conditions. I’ve noticed the…