The Impact of Global Events on Market Outlook


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what, if any, global events are influencing their six-month outlook towards the stock market. Responses varied, with several members listing more than one event. More than one in five (22%) respondents said that events in the Middle East are having an impact. Ongoing instability was the primary factor, though several respondents mentioned the framework for a possible deal with Iran. About 19% of respondents said that Europe is influencing their outlooks, particularly its rate of growth. The stronger U.S. dollar is influencing the outlooks of 15% of all respondents. A nearly equal number, about 11% each, said that the global economy and central bank policies are having an impact on their expectations for the stock market.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “Economic stimulus measures overseas may help to offset a fully to slightly overvalued U.S. market.”
  • “Growing unrest in the Middle East.”
  • “Iranian nuclear accord reaching finalization.”
  • “The continuing strength of the U.S. dollar.”
  • “The European Union economy seems to be stabilizing thanks to accommodative monetary policy.”

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