Washington Politics Influencing Market Outlook for Nearly a Third of Investors


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. Washington politics—including President Donald Trump and the midterm election results—are cited by 30% of respondents. Tariffs, particularly the ongoing trade war with China, are listed by 16% of all respondents. Nearly 13% say corporate earnings while about 10% discussed the ongoing cycle of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Other factors mentioned include the recent volatility, valuations and concerns about the pace of economic growth. Some respondents list more than one factor.

Here is a sampling of the results:

  • “Trade war tensions against China.”
  • “Political division will dampen the animal spirits motivated by the president’s pro-business agenda.”
  • “Corporate earnings are my focus at this time.”
  • “Elections and tariffs.”
  • “Overvaluation based on likely future earnings.”

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