A Quarter of Investors Believe Economy Will Grow in 2019, But at Slower Pace


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how they expect the U.S. economy will perform over the next six to 12 months. Responses varied. The largest group of members (25%) expect the economy to continue growing, but at a slower pace than this year. Nearly 13% expect growth to remain at a good pace or at least 3%. About 14% expect economic growth to be flat, slightly up or slightly down. Just under 13% think the economy will slow or even fall into recession. Some members say their outlook is dependent on what happens with the trade war (7%) or what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates (3%).

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “Steady but growing at a slower rate than in 2018.”
  • “Flat to down. I think a lot will depend on what happens with the tariffs and China.”
  • “Good, but not great. Growing at 3%.”
  • “Once the trade dispute is solved, I think the economy will do fairly well.”
  • “Growth will slow with a risk of a recession, especially if trade tensions persist.”

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