Individual investors’ expectations for the short-term direction of the stock market are largely unchanged from a week ago. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows a slight increase in neutral sentiment and a slight decrease in pessimism.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, held steady at 32.0%. The historical average is 38.5%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose by a modest 0.8 percentage points to 35.9%. Neutral sentiment remains above its historical average of 31.0% for the 30th time in 31 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined by 0.8 percentage points to 32.0%. This is only the fourth time this year that pessimism is above its historical average of 30.5% on consecutive weeks.
At current levels, all three indicators are well within their typical historical ranges.
Tariffs and the possibility of an escalating trade war remain front and center on the minds of many individual investors. Also influencing sentiment are Washington politics (including President Donald Trump), midterm elections, economic growth, interest rates (including monetary policy), valuations and corporate profits.
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
- Bullish: 32.0%, no change
- Neutral: 35.9%, up 0.8 percentage points
- Bearish: 32.0%, down 0.8 percentage points
- Bullish: 38.5%
- Neutral: 31.0%
- Bearish: 30.5%
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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