Global Events and Interest Rates Affecting Members’ Stock Outlook


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what factors are currently having the greatest impact on their six-month outlook for stocks. More than one out of every three respondents (35%) listed global and international events, particularly China and global economic weakness. U.S. monetary policy—both the possible timing of the first rate hike and the decision not to raise rates at last month’s meeting—was a close second, listed by 31% of all respondents. About 19% pointed to technical factors, seasonal trends, the recent correction or the chance of further price declines occurring. More than 17% of all respondents said U.S. politics, including the upcoming election, the budget and the national debt. Nearly 15% pointed to the pace of U.S. economic growth. Many respondents listed more than one factor as influencing their outlook.


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