Investors Split on This Year’s Biggest Threat to the Market


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they think is the biggest threat that the U.S. market will face between now and the end of the year. Responses varied. Higher inflation and interest rates are listed by 18% of respondents. President Donald Trump is also cited by 18% of respondents. Comments about the president reference his tweets, policy shifts and the possibility of him being removed from office. The midterm elections and the possibility of a change in congressional leadership are cited by 6% of respondents.

Nearly 12% point to tariffs and the possibility of a trade war. Slightly more than 9% of respondents describe geopolitical unrest and the possibility of military conflict as threats. Some members list more than one threat.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “Rising interest rates and continued political and international instability.”
  • “The unsettled local and geopolitical environments.”
  • “The risk of the president causing a trade war.”
  • “Domestic politics, including the midterm elections and impeachment.”
  • “An unanticipated event such as war, a spike in inflation or political upheaval.”

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