Nearly 3 in 5 Polled Believe S&P 500 Will Realize Gain in 2017


This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how big of a percentage gain or loss the S&P 500 will realize in 2017. Just under three out of five respondents (59%) expect the large-cap index to post a gain next year. Slightly less than half anticipate a single-digit percentage-point rise, with 23% predicting an increase of up to 5% and 27% forecasting an increase of between 5% and 10%. Expectations for tax reform, deregulation and new trade policies were the primary reasons given as to why.

Slightly more than one out of five respondents (21%) expect the market to decline next year. Nearly 8% of all respondents predicted a drop of 15% or larger. Many of these respondents cited the new administration’s potential policies as the reason for their pessimism.

Here is sampling of the responses:

  • “6-8%, and I think it will happen due to a number of things Trump will get done.”
  • “A major 20% loss because of disastrous White House policies.”
  • “4% gain. Tax reductions and deregulatory policy will gradually kick in to facilitate a modest increase in stock prices.”
  • “0% because of rising interest rates.”

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at

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